The Bitcoin price has dropped sharply this month. Since early November, it has fallen almost 15%, turning one of the strongest assets of the year into one of the weakest in the current pullback. This significant drop has pushed the market into two camps once again.
Some investors believe this marks the start of a deeper correction, while others think the cycle is still unfolding and view this as merely an oversized dip. The next major move depends on one critical level. If Bitcoin reclaims this level, a rebound setup activates. If it fails, the downside could widen quickly.
### Early Signs of Selling Pressure Easing
There are early indications that sellers might be losing strength. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) entered the oversold zone this week and has since reversed—a signal that selling pressure is easing.
A longer-term pattern also supports this view. Between April 30 and November 14, Bitcoin formed a higher low, indicating the broader trend is not fully broken. However, during the same period, the RSI made a lower low. This hidden bullish divergence is a signal that often appears when a strong trend attempts to resume after a significant correction.
For the RSI signal to play out, Bitcoin’s price must cross above $100,300—a key support level since late April that might now act as psychological resistance.
### Supply Data Supports This Resistance Zone
Supply data points to the same critical area on the chart. The UTXO Realized Price Distribution shows a large band of long-term Bitcoins created near the $100,900 zone. When a cluster like this forms, it often becomes a significant decision point because many holders share the same cost basis.
This cost-basis cluster falls near the resistance level highlighted on the RSI chart. Therefore, the momentum story only matters if Bitcoin closes back above this region. Without that close, the divergence and oversold readings remain unconfirmed.
### A One-Year Low in NUPL Keeps the Bottoming Case Alive
Another argument for a potential rebound comes from the Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) metric. NUPL has dropped to 0.40—its lowest reading in a year. This means the market is back to holding very thin unrealized profits, similar to early-cycle periods.
The last time NUPL hit a comparable low was in April. After that, Bitcoin climbed roughly 46% in less than two months. While this doesn’t guarantee a repeat, it shows the market is entering a familiar pressure zone where rebounds often form if the price stabilizes.
However, just like the RSI, this indicator depends on the price reclaiming the same resistance band. Without that, the Bitcoin bottoming theory remains open but inactive.
### Bitcoin Price Trades in a Falling Channel With Two Critical Levels in Sight
Currently, Bitcoin remains within a falling channel, maintaining a bearish short-term trend. The first step out of this channel is straightforward: reclaim $100,300.
A daily close above $101,600 would strengthen this move and flip the old resistance back into support. If that happens, the next significant level lies near $106,300. Breaking above $106,300 would push Bitcoin out of the falling channel, shifting the trend from bearish to neutral—and potentially bullish if momentum improves.
### Downside Risks to Watch
On the downside, the lower band of the channel has only two clean touches, making it structurally weak. If Bitcoin falls below the $93,900-$92,800 range, the pattern opens to deeper levels, and the “extended cycle” bearish view becomes harder to defend.
### Conclusion: A Critical Decision Point
Right now, everything rests on one key decision point:
– **Above $100,300**: Bitcoin’s price stabilizes, setting the stage for a potential rebound.
– **Below $93,900**: The slide could accelerate, and bearish pressures may intensify.
Traders and investors will be watching these levels closely as Bitcoin navigates this crucial phase.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/one-bitcoin-price-level-that-decides-everything/
