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Bitcoin’s Bearish 200-Day Trend Fuels Debate on Potential Bull Market Shift

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Persistent trend shift: Bitcoin’s price has spent extended time below the 200-day trend, confirming bearish momentum. Volume spikes and above-average volatility highlight market uncertainty. Analysts predict 2026 as a decline year, with the 200-day moving average dipping below the 50-day in mid-November 2025. Discover how Bitcoin’s 200-day trend turning bearish impacts the bull market. Expert insights reveal mixed signals-explore key indicators and analyst views for informed crypto decisions today. What Does Bitcoin’s 200-Day Trend Turning Bearish Mean for the Market? Bitcoin’s 200-day trend turning bearish indicates a potential reversal from the ongoing bull phase, as this long-term technical indicator has shifted downward, suggesting weakened momentum and possible extended declines. Analysts use the 200-day trend to connect price points and assess overall strength, and its bearish turn, confirmed by factors like prolonged time below the line and heightened volatility, raises concerns about the sustainability of recent gains. While this doesn’t guarantee an immediate crash, it serves as a critical warning for investors monitoring long-term support levels. How Are Moving Averages Influencing Bitcoin’s Current Outlook? The 200-day moving average, which calculates the average price over the past 200 days, crossed below the 50-day moving average in mid-November 2025, forming a “death cross”-a widely recognized bearish signal in technical analysis. This event, tracked closely by traders, often precedes broader market corrections and is viewed as a shift toward bearish territory. According to data from market charts, Bitcoin’s price has shown persistent weakness since this crossover, with volume spikes indicating selling pressure. Crypto analyst Crypto₿irb, who shares insights with a large following on social platforms, emphasized that this trend shift is supported by worsened market breadth and above-average volatility, predicting a year of declines in 2026. These indicators are essential for gauging bull and bear phases, providing a mathematical lens on price history that helps separate short-term noise from enduring patterns. In professional financial circles, such as those at research firms, experts stress that while moving averages aren’t foolproof, their alignment with other metrics like the 200-day trend strengthens the case for caution. For instance, the death cross has historically correlated with periods of 20-30% drawdowns in Bitcoin’s cycles, based on past data from 2018 and 2022 downturns. Investors should note that these tools are lagging by design, reflecting historical data rather than predicting exact turns, but they remain staples in crypto portfolio management. A long-term technical trend indicator for Bitcoin has turned bearish, leading at least one analyst to believe that the bull market may be over. “From a technical standpoint, the bull market is over,” crypto analyst Crypto₿irb shared with his followers on Thursday. Bitcoin (BTC) exhibits a “persistent trend shift, confirmed by price percentage traveled, volume spikes, above-average volatility, time spent below the 200-day trend, and worsened breadth,” he said as he predicted 2026 to be a year of declines. The analysis highlighted a downturn in the 200-day trend, a visual tool analysts use to connect specific points and gauge trend strength or breakouts. Additionally, the 200-day moving average, a different indicator that shows the mathematical average price of BTC over the past 200 days, turned downward in mid-November when a “death cross” occurred as it dipped below the shorter-term 50-day moving average. These indicators are closely watched as a long-term support level and signals for bull and bear markets. Bitcoin Bear Market Calls Are Increasing Bearish sentiments around Bitcoin are gaining traction among analysts as multiple indicators align to suggest a market top. “There is no debate, Bitcoin is in a bear market,” Markus Thielen from 10x Research stated plainly. He added that the current environment represents “a bear market reversal rally,” where temporary upticks mask deeper underlying pressures. This view aligns with observations of whale exchange deposits, which, if sustained at high levels, could precipitate further drops, as noted in recent market analyses. However, not all experts concur on the immediacy of a full bear phase. Henrik Andersson, chief investment officer of crypto asset fund manager Apollo Capital, pointed out that the strong buying from digital asset treasuries seen in the first half of 2025 has waned, but this “doesn’t mean we are in a bear market.” He advised that future directions will hinge on broader risk assets, making selectivity crucial for investors. Andersson’s perspective underscores the interconnectedness of crypto with traditional markets, where factors like interest rates and equity performance play pivotal roles. In fact, historical data shows Bitcoin often mirrors Nasdaq trends during volatile periods, with correlations reaching 0. 7 in recent quarters according to on-chain analytics. Thielen’s firm, 10x Research, has long emphasized on-chain metrics like exchange inflows to forecast sentiment, reporting a 15% increase in such deposits over the past month, which bolsters bearish outlooks. These diverging opinions highlight the nuanced nature of crypto markets, where technical signals must be weighed against macroeconomic influences. For institutional players, this divergence prompts a reevaluation of exposure, with many funds adjusting to 20-30% allocations in light of the 200-day trend’s bearish flip. Short-Term Relief for the Bitcoin Bulls Despite the overarching bearish signals, short-term charts offer a glimmer of hope for Bitcoin bulls. Crypto analyst Skew noted on Thursday that the four-hour timeframe appears “looking a lot more constructive here for the bulls.” He indicated that “momentum is toward the upside if buyers and the market can muster strength from here.” This optimism stems from recent price action, where Bitcoin approached but fell short of $92,000 on major exchanges like Coinbase during early Thursday trading, settling around $91,200 by publication. Skew warned that a retreat below $88,000 would signal weakness and failed upside momentum, while the $90,000 to $92,000 range represents a critical battleground for establishing a structural trend. In this zone, buying volume could determine whether short-term relief evolves into sustained recovery. Market data supports this, showing a 5% intraday bounce driven by retail interest, though overall open interest remains subdued compared to peak bull levels. Analysts like Skew, known for derivatives expertise, often reference funding rates, which turned positive this week, suggesting bullish leverage. Yet, this relief is fragile; broader context from the 200-day trend bearish turn tempers enthusiasm, with experts recommending stop-losses around key supports. For day traders, this setup presents opportunities, but long-term holders are advised to monitor volume for confirmation. Recent editions of industry digests have explored ambitious targets like $200,000 by year-end or extended timelines to 2029, reflecting the speculative yet data-driven discourse in crypto communities. Frequently Asked Questions What Is the Significance of Bitcoin’s 200-Day Moving Average Turning Bearish? The 200-day moving average turning bearish for Bitcoin signals a potential long-term downtrend, often confirming the end of bull cycles through the death cross with the 50-day average. This indicator, based on historical price data, has preceded major corrections in past years, urging investors to reassess positions amid rising volatility. Is Bitcoin Entering a Full Bear Market in 2025? While some indicators like the 200-day trend suggest Bitcoin is shifting toward a bear market, analysts differ-viewing current moves as a reversal rally rather than a confirmed downturn. Broader risk asset performance will likely dictate the path, with selectivity key for navigating this phase smoothly. Key Takeaways Bearish Technical Shift: The 200-day trend’s downturn, backed by volume and volatility, indicates the bull market may be concluding, per leading analysts. Death Cross Warning: Mid-November 2025’s moving average crossover highlights historical patterns of 20-30% drawdowns, informing risk management. Short-Term Bullish Potential: Four-hour charts show upside momentum above $88,000, but sustaining $90,000-$92,000 is essential for trend reversal. Conclusion.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/bitcoins-bearish-200-day-trend-fuels-debate-on-potential-bull-market-shift/

Bitcoin Price Soars, Crosses $90,000 — LTH Still a Threat

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Bitcoin is beginning to recover from its recent decline, crossing above $90,000 for the first time in a week as market conditions slowly improve. However, despite the renewed optimism, one key group of investors continues to fuel concerns around liquidity. This lingering pressure is preventing Bitcoin from reestablishing a fully stable upward trend. Sponsored Sponsored Bitcoin Holders Could Present A Threat Liquidity trends measured through realized profit and loss provide important insight into longer-term market health. The Long-Term Holder (LTH) Realized Profit/Loss Ratio remains above 100x, indicating that long-term holders are still realizing profits rather than losses. This suggests liquidity remains healthier than during major bottom formations or the stressed market conditions of Q1 2022. As long as LTHs continue to realize profits, Bitcoin retains a layer of structural support. However, the picture could shift quickly. If liquidity fades and the ratio compresses toward 10x or lower, the risk of entering a deeper bear market becomes difficult to dismiss. Historically, that threshold has aligned with moments of severe stress across long-term holders. Should LTHs begin realizing losses, it would signal a deterioration in market confidence and a potential reversal in price momentum. . Recent patterns reflect clear mean reversion, suggesting that volatility sellers are returning. Even so, implied volatility remains elevated relative to actual market performance. Sponsored Sponsored Glassnode data shows that one-month implied volatility has fallen-dropping roughly 20 vol points from last week’s peak and about 10 points from recent levels-indicating that some of the stress premium is now unwinding. The decline in implied volatility, combined with easing put skew, signals reduced demand for immediate downside protection. This means short-term fear has cooled, though Bitcoin still remains vulnerable to sudden shifts. BTC Price Still Needs To Test Crucial Support Bitcoin is trading at $91,366, holding firmly above the $89,800 support level after crossing $90,000 for the first time in seven days. The crypto king now faces resistance at $91,521, a key barrier that will determine the next leg of its recovery. Volatility may increase if long-term holders begin realizing losses, potentially derailing the rebound. This scenario could pull Bitcoin back below $90,000, exposing it to declines toward $86,822 or $85,204 in the short term. If long-term holders continue realizing profits and traders maintain a bullish tone, Bitcoin should remain protected from deeper downside. This resilience could help reignite bullish momentum, allowing BTC to break above $91,521 and target $95,000. A move beyond this psychological zone would open the path toward $98,000 and potentially a push toward the $100,000 mark.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-soars-crosses-90000-lth-still-a-threat/

Strategy doesn’t sweat Bitcoin crash since reserves exceed debt obligations

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Strategy is reassuring investors that its towering Bitcoin stash still dwarfs its debt-even as its stock price keeps falling faster than a hardware wallet dropped off a balcony. Michael Saylor’s company said its Bitcoin holdings would be worth nearly six times its outstanding convertible notes if the cryptocurrency fell back to Strategy’s average purchase price, a metric it now proudly calls its “Bitcoin Rating.” Even in a doomsday-level market plunge, Strategy says the ratio would hold at a still-comfortable 2. 0x, based on figures compiled by BitcoinTreasuries. The upbeat math arrives at an awkward moment: Strategy’s share price has tumbled in recent weeks, culminating in its removal from the S&P 500 on November 25. Adding to the pressure, MSCI is expected to rule early next year on whether companies that hold most of their assets in cryptocurrency should even appear in equity indices. JPMorgan analysts warned the decision could spark forced selling, prompting parts of the crypto community to accuse the bank of attacking Strategy to profit from a supposed short position. Perera, however, found no evidence of a JPMorgan short in SEC filings-only share sales and some put options. Institutions aren’t abandoning Bitcoin-just Strategy Analyst Shanaka Anselm Perera reported that institutional investors pulled significant capital from the company in the third quarter-apparently deciding there are safer ways to gain Bitcoin exposure. As JPMorgan trimmed its stake, heavyweight players like Harvard University moved into BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF, a shift analysts say helped erase Strategy’s long-standing premium over its underlying Bitcoin. For the first time in five years, the company’s market cap now sits below the value of its BTC holdings.
https://crypto.news/strategy-doesnt-sweat-bitcoin-crash-debt-obligations/

Bitcoin Dead Cat Bounce: Analyst Reveals What To Expect As Price Recovers

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Bitcoin’s (BTC) latest upward move arrives at a time when confidence in the market remains uncertain, with many traders unsure whether the slight price recovery marks early strength or another temporary bounce. With last week’s pullback still fresh, a crypto analyst argues that most traders may label the recent recovery a dead cat bounce. However, he believes the narrative is misleading and predicts that Bitcoin’s rebound this week may be setting the stage for a stronger rally. Why The Bitcoin Price Recovery Is Not A Dead Cat Bounce Market analyst and founder of The House of Crypto, Peter Anthony, has released a new technical analysis of Bitcoin that challenges the prevailing bearish sentiment among traders. In his post on X, Anthony stated that the repeated claims of a dead cat bounce are part of a recurring pattern that has appeared at multiple stages of previous Bitcoin price recoveries. He explained that market sentiments have swung so far into fear that many traders may have already locked in their worst losses just as the market began to recover. According to his analysis, last week’s BTC sell-off and price crash prompted many participants to exit their positions near the bottom. Now that the cryptocurrency is recovering, the analyst believes those same traders will hesitate to re-enter the market, convinced that the recent rebound is nothing more than a dead cat bounce. In his chart, Anthony highlighted several instances in the past when similar skepticism emerged after Bitcoin continued trending higher following a downturn. The analyst expects this pessimistic behavior to persist, stating that traders may continue labeling every upward push a dead cat bounce until BTC reaches $100,000 and beyond. This suggests that investors might interpret each step higher as a warning sign that the price rally is only temporary and bound to fail. While he believes the underlying trend is bullish, Anthony has acknowledged that a correction could still emerge as Bitcoin approaches previous highs. However, he reassures that the routine pullback would not negate the broader recovery underway. The analyst’s report indicates that the dead cat bounce narrative will prove to be a false signal. He predicts that disbelief in the market will eventually give way to Fear of Missing Out (FOMO) once Bitcoin decisively moves above $115,000. At that point, Anthony forecasts that many traders who sold during the downturn will scramble to buy back in at higher levels, completing a cycle of selling low and buying high. BTC Could Hit $115,000 Before Skeptics Turn Bullish In a follow-up post, Anthony issued a sharp critique of the emotional trading patterns and bearish sentiment dominating the crypto market. According to him, many of these traders who insist the Bitcoin rally has ended will continue to call every upward move a dead cat bounce, even as the price advances. By the time Bitcoin hits $115,000, the analyst expects investor sentiment to shift abruptly, triggering a late surge of bullishness from traders who had doubted the initial recovery. Anthony argues that these sudden changes in viewpoint will have little to do with careful analysis and everything to do with watching the chart move and reacting afterward.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-dead-cat-bounce-analyst-reveals-what-to-expect-as-price-recovers/

Bitcoin Options Market Turns Bearish in Q4 as Whales Roll Positions Amid Heightened Volatility

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Market observers say the Bitcoin options market was upbeat in Q3 about year-end highs, with the so‑called Q4 market or “holiday rally” terms circulating even as Bitcoin slid. However, the late‑summer pullback and the ongoing November softness have eroded that structure, leaving bearish sentiment as the prevailing consensus and undermining the case for a decisive late‑year rally. From the data lens, declines in realized volatility (RV), implied volatility (IV), and 25‑day Skew have not quelled fear. Medium‑ to long‑term option readings point to a continued bearish bias into year‑end and early next year, with whales pushing to roll positions as price swings intensify near monthly expirations.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-options-market-turns-bearish-in-q4-as-whales-roll-positions-amid-heightened-volatility/

None of Bitcoin’s bull market peak indicators have been triggered yet, Coinglass

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Bitcoin has yet to flash a single confirmed market-top warning signal even after dwindling down 30. 7% from its all-time high in early October, according to data from analytics platform Coinglass reviewed on Tuesday. None of the 30 monitored bull-market peak indicators have reached their activation thresholds, leaving the composite dashboard at “0/30” as of the latest update. At least 15 triggers are needed before Coinglass confirms the market has peaked. The absence of signals suggests the market has not entered the type of extreme euphoria, with an average progress level of 43. 84% toward peak conditions, far below danger territory. Price trend, supply, dominance indicators nearing activation Although none of the indicators have reached their thresholds, four of them are approaching critical levels. The closest among them is the Bitcoin Short-Term Holder Supply, which registered 29. 37% against a target of 30%, reaching 97. 9% of the level associated with prior tops. The second-closest metric is Bitcoin Long-Term Holder Supply, with 14. 09 million BTC recorded versus a bull-market peak threshold of 13. 5 million. Supply held by long-term investors mostly declines during topping phases as holders distribute into rising prices, and this metric reached 95. 82%, the second-highest reading on the dashboard. The third is Bitcoin Dominance, which rose to 58. 16%, several percentage points below the 65% reference level associated with past market peaks. The Bitcoin Trend Indicator printed 6. 14 against a required 7 with a progress of 87. 72%. At the other end of the scale, the Bitcoin AHR999 Top Escape Indicator sits at 5. 64, far above the ≤0. 45 level expected during overheated conditions. With just 7. 98% progress, it is the furthest from confirmation among all 30 metrics. The Bitcoin Ah999 Index, another valuation-based top detector, prints 0. 54 against a required ≥4 and a 13. 5% progress, suggesting the market is under moot stress. Lastly, the Bitcoin Bubble Index, tracking how speculative the market is, had clocked 9. 98 compared to a target of 80, showing little resemblance to prior mania phases. ETF net flows spell Bitcoin market’s risk aversion Bitcoin hovered near $87,800 on Tuesday after rebounding from a monthly low of $82,000, which has been flipped by buyers as its psychological support. US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $3. 5 billion in outflows this month, with Monday’s session alone producing $151 million in net BTC ETF outflows. Other coins like Ethereum and Solana ETFs saw inflows of $97 million and $58 million, respectively. Despite selective inflows into ETH and SOL products, the broader crypto-fund landscape has seen heavy withdrawals that reached $1. 9 billion in outflows last week, the third-worst redemption period since 2018, according to CoinShares. “This level of volatility is something Wall Street investors are not very used to, and BTC has dropped more than 30% in just over a month. Once that selling pressure is exhausted, it becomes a setup for the market to recover, mainly driven by one thing: the expected rate cut in December,” DeFi investment group What Exchange commented on X. BTC price trend similar to 2021, XRP and ETH rally According to market analyst Merlijn The Trader, Bitcoin’s current price chart is similar to its 2021 bull-to-bear pattern. When defending the $82,000 macro base, the king coin drew a trend that was seen in 2021, holding a support band before breaking down. “If the downtrend breaks next. The entire market flips bullish,” Merlijn told his followers. Ethereum showed signs of active two-way trading, with volatility spikes and aggressive orders hitting both sides of the book. Buyers kept buying dips between $2,790 and $2,800, while sellers kept moves at $2,820 and $2,835 through heavy walls of liquidity. CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain spotted whale addresses holding between 10, 000 and 100, 000 ETH have reached levels above 21 million ETH, which could have helped the second coin by market cap keep its 4. 3% price boost in the last day. On XRP, new XRP ETFs from Franklin Templeton and Grayscale attracted $164 million in net inflows on launch day, with combined inflows exceeding $600 million in under two weeks. As Cryptopolitan reported early Tuesday, institutional interest has taken the coin to a 7% rally in 24 hours, but a brief price pullback took it from an intraday high of $2. 25 to $2. 21. Join a premium crypto trading community free for 30 days normally $100/mo.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/none-of-bitcoins-bull-market-peak-indicators-have-been-triggered-yet-coinglass/

Bitcoin Surges 8% as Powell Eyes December Fed Rate Cut Push

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Bitcoin surges 8% from $81K low as Fed rate cut odds jump to 67% for December meeting. Chair Powell may override divided Fed officials to push through 25 basis point rate reduction. With‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌ the market speculating a Fed rate cut in December, Bitcoin has rallied by more than 8% since it went down below $81, 000 on Friday. According to Barclays Research, there is disagreement among Fed officials about the future of monetary policy. Moreover, Chair Jerome Powell might signal another 25 basis point ‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌cut. Powell Could Tip the Scales Toward Rate Reduction It‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌ looks like, Federal officials are quite divided on the issue of monetary policy direction. It has been reported that governors Stephen Miran, Michelle Bowman, and Christopher Waller are in favor of loosening rates at the meeting in December. On the other hand, President of the St. Louis Fed, Alberto Musalem and President of the Kansas City Fed, Jeffrey Schmid are inclined to keep the current range of 3. 75-4% without any further changes. Vice Chair Michael Barr, Philip Jefferson, Austan Goolsbee of Chicago, and Susan Collins of Boston are all quite uncertain about the matter and are slightly inclined to suggest holding the rates at their current level. In the meantime, Lisa Cook and John Williams are waiting for the economic data to come in and seem to be agreeable to another rate cut if the situation requires ‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌it. The‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌ CME FedWatch tool is currently indicating a 67% chance of a rate cut in December, which is a significant reversal from the 33% probability that was estimated right after Fed Williams’ remarks. According to Nick Timiraos, a reporter for the Wall Street Journal, if there is a rate reduction, Powell will have to be very vocal about it and persuade the rest of the committee to go along with the decision since they will be divided. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent dismissed worries about inflation and recession after recent increases in the service economy said the increases had nothing to do with imported goods or tariffs. Bitcoin‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌ is trading close to $86,700 after it had made its 24-hour high at $88,038. The trading volume has been increased by 45% during this time. An analyst named Michael van de Poppe has located a CME gap at $85,200 and, therefore, he is expecting a Bitcoin short-term drop of a few hours or days before the latter will resume its upward trend and reach $90,000-$96,000 to establish support. Another‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌ weekly close of more than $86,000, according to Rekt Capital, may give Bitcoin the power to go to $93,000, however, if there is a rejection at that level, the prices could be trapped for a while. The revival momentum may be kept alive by the interaction of positive forces like spot Bitcoin ETFs, whale accumulation, and call options buying until the end of trading ‍‌‍‍‌‍‌‍‍‌year. Highlighted Crypto News Today:.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-surges-8-as-powell-eyes-december-fed-rate-cut-push/

Bitcoin Price Today: BTC Price Reclaims Strength at $87K, but Bulls Must Overcome the $100K Block

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After briefly dipping earlier in the week, Bitcoin has stabilized above crucial demand zones, attracting fresh trader interest. Market sentiment is shifting as buyers eye a potential surge toward the highly anticipated $90K-$100K range. Weekend Momentum Accelerates, but Analysts Urge Caution Market commentator Ted (@TedPillows)-known for tracking Bitcoin liquidity flows and weekend volatility patterns-highlighted the recurring nature of weekend-driven rallies, noting that they often fade once institutional trading volume returns. “TC weekend pump is here. And we know what will happen next,” he wrote, suggesting that Bitcoin frequently loses momentum without strong weekday follow-through from institutional desks. Bitcoin’s weekend pump returns, but traders warn real momentum must show up on weekdays. Technical charts referenced by traders show consistent selling pressure around this region, which continues to serve as a major barrier to any attempt at a new Bitcoin all-time high. Some analysts attribute this behavior to thinner weekend order books. According to multiple order-flow tools used by traders, weekend depth can be 10-30% lower than weekday levels, magnifying both upward surges and sudden corrections. Critics refer to these conditions as “low-liquidity weekend traps”, though not all analysts agree on the reliability of this pattern. Large Sell Orders Emerge as Market Approaches Resistance In a separate update, Ted noted that significant sell-side liquidity has been forming between $88,000 and $91,000. “Some big sell orders are emerging. Bitcoin is trading $2,000 above the CME gap, which isn’t a good sign,” he remarked, referencing common futures-market dynamics tracked by many traders. Bitcoin faces heavy sell walls near $88K-$91K as traders brace for a possible Monday top and a CME gap-filling drop. Red candles appeared as large sell walls developed across Binance. Coinbase and other major venues have visible liquidity clusters totaling nearly $800 million across multiple exchanges. While some traders interpret heavy liquidity as a sign of potential rejection, others argue that CME gaps do not always fill quickly, and their timing remains widely debated. Some previous gaps have taken weeks or months to close, while others remain unfilled entirely. This ongoing debate highlights the uncertainty surrounding Bitcoin’s next decisive move. Short-Term Technicals Support Upside-If Key Levels Hold A technical breakdown from TradingView analyst SMC-Trading-Point-who specializes in Smart Money Concepts (SMC) and institutional order-flow analysis-offered a more constructive outlook, pointing to strong structural signals on the 1-hour BTC/USDT chart. BTC holds above the 85. 3K-86K demand zone, signaling bullish continuation toward the 90K liquidity target. Price action remains above the EMA 50, while approaching the EMA 200, a level many traders associate with potential trend reversals when broken convincingly. Higher lows and the break of minor structure highs suggest that bullish momentum is gradually building. The analyst highlighted the next upside target at $90, 000-$90, 100, which aligns with a liquidity pool and resistance cluster monitored by short-term traders. Looking Ahead: Can Bitcoin Break the $100K Barrier? Bitcoin’s weekend rally shows that buyers remain active, but the next major test will come when weekday trading volume returns. The $88,000-$91,000 region has emerged as a critical battleground, with order-book data showing heavy liquidity in this range. Breaking above it could open the path toward another challenge of $100, 000, while failure may lead to a broader retracement toward the lower CME gap area. Bitcoin was trading at around 86, 990, up 2. 93% in the last 24 hours at press time. With Bitcoin’s market cap recovering alongside resilient ETF inflows, the broader uptrend remains intact-but volatility is likely as BTC approaches one of its most important resistance zones of the year.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-price-today-btc-price-reclaims-strength-at-87k-but-bulls-must-overcome-the-100k-block/

Bitcoin Cycle Peak Still Ahead, According to New Price Projection

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Bitcoin Many investors looking at Bitcoin’s latest pullback are bracing for a dramatic washout. But one crypto analyst argues the opposite: the downturn might already be close to exhausting itself and the next leg higher could begin from a level far above where most bears expect. Instead of warning about a crash into the $50,000s or lower, the analyst believes the market is shaping up for a controlled reset inside the higher price ranges. In his view, the biggest cluster of probabilities sits not in disaster territory but in an area that would still keep Bitcoin deep inside bullish long-term structure. A Statistical Approach to Price Floors His model visualizes the current correction as a probability curve rather than an emotional forecast. The curve peaks around the $70,000-$80,000 band, which he identifies as the most realistic zone for Bitcoin to finalize its bottom. Everything below that begins to show smaller and smaller likelihoods. The analyst’s curve continues to taper: a dip to $60,000-$70,000 sits in the slim-chance category; $50,000-$60,000 drifts into unlikely territory; and anything under $50,000 is labeled borderline impossible statistically speaking. Under that framework, $70,000 becomes the practical definition of the worst case rather than the catastrophic depths many fear. The Long-Term Mindset Interestingly, his outlook doesn’t come from someone trying to time every fluctuation. He openly states he doesn’t chase short-term entries or exits and considers Bitcoin a multi-year growth story rather than a trading instrument. He said he wouldn’t even consider selling the majority of his holdings until he hits a 100x return on his cost basis, something he believes could realistically materialize five to ten years from now. From that perspective, he sees $126,000 or any price near it as nowhere near “expensive” when measured against his long-range target. Cycle Peak Still Ahead, Not Behind Another distinctive part of his thesis is timing. Bitcoin, he argues, hasn’t yet shown the behavioral markers of a cycle peak. His model places the true top sometime in 2026 or 2027, not in the current year, and he views the ongoing pullback as the middle portion of a larger upward cycle, not the end of one. Despite that confidence, he still stresses that markets are probabilistic systems not prophecies and all targets remain subject to new data. The information provided in this article is for educational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Coindoo. com does not endorse or recommend any specific investment strategy or cryptocurrency. Always conduct your own research and consult with a licensed financial advisor before making any investment decisions. Author Alex is an experienced financial journalist and cryptocurrency enthusiast. With over 8 years of experience covering the crypto, blockchain, and fintech industries, he is well-versed in the complex and ever-evolving world of digital assets. His insightful and thought-provoking articles provide readers with a clear picture of the latest developments and trends in the market. His approach allows him to break down complex ideas into accessible and in-depth content. Follow his publications to stay up to date with the most important trends and topics. Related stories.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/bitcoin-cycle-peak-still-ahead-according-to-new-price-projection/

5 Reasons Why Raoul Pal Is Buying Bitcoin Despite Brutal 30% Sell-Off

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Raoul Pal had a pretty simple take on the latest Bitcoin drop as he compared it to what has happened loads of times before, and for him it is a bit of a pain, but not something out of the ordinary for the cryptocurrency. For the former Goldman Sachs macro chief, the main point is that Bitcoin’s biggest dips are usually caused by the same mix of unwinds, stressed market-maker books, thin liquidity and traders being forced out of positions long before anything changes on the macro side. He thinks what’s happening now fits that same pattern pretty closely. The numbers show why Pal treats this as a routine cycle reset instead of something structurally new. Back in 2021, Bitcoin fell 56% in four weeks, Ethereum lost 62% and Solana dropped 68%, but all three bounced back hard once the forced selling ended. Bitcoin’s past maps future for Raoul Pal In 2019-2020, Bitcoin fell 72% even though the overall trend was bullish. This was partly due to the impact of the pandemic, but the long-term trend remained positive. Even in the 2016-2017 cycle, there were seven separate Bitcoin drops of more than 30%, and altcoins were hit even harder, but the overall structure continued to rise. You can see all of this on the Bloomberg log chart, where large collapses shrink into brief interruptions. Pal says he has seen this before: the market’s oversold, the price action is unstable and liquidity is thin, but there is nothing to suggest the long-term trend has reversed.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/5-reasons-why-raoul-pal-is-buying-bitcoin-despite-brutal-30-sell-off/