Democrats Celebrate Strong Election Results in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City
The results are in from yesterday’s elections, and while the final ballots are still being tallied, it was a great day for Democrats in Virginia, New Jersey, and New York City. In what was essentially a clean sweep, Democratic Party contenders overperformed in just about every race.
What comes next is the narrative building around how these victories can be used as indicators for the 2026 midterms. Although the burgeoning story suggests that November 4 was a repudiation of the Donald Trump presidency, it’s worth remembering that all these contests took place in reliably blue locations. But what does the data tell us?
Virginia Election Turnaround
Democratic Party candidate Abigail Spanberger secured a decisive victory with 57% of the vote, compared to 42% for GOP Lieutenant Governor Winsome Earle-Sears. While this race was never expected to be close—especially with large numbers of Virginians furloughed due to the shutdown—Spanberger exceeded her polling numbers significantly.
Liberty Nation News’ Public Square polling aggregator had her leading by 8.4%, yet her election day winning margin of 15% surpassed expectations. In fact, only one poll came close, a mid-October YouGov survey that predicted a similar result.
Two factors likely harmed Earle-Sears’ chances beyond demographic challenges in the DC-adjacent region. First, her contentious relationship with President Trump—who notably did not endorse her—damaged her standing. After the 2022 midterms, Earle-Sears blamed Trump almost entirely for the GOP’s losses, despite him not being in office at the time.
Second, running on the same ballot, Attorney General Jason Miyares politically undercut her on polling day by urging voters to split their tickets to ensure his own election. While this last-minute endorsement shift may not have drastically affected in-person voting, it likely didn’t help her cause.
Virginia Attorney General Race
This contest was the only one where surprises were expected. Democrat Jay Jones trailed for weeks before a scandal involving released text messages—where he wished death upon the small children of a political rival—caused polling to shift.
By election day, an average of polls suggested just a 0.3% advantage for Jones. Despite the controversy, Virginians appeared unbothered by the scandal, as Jones comfortably won 53% to 46%.
Notably, neither Abigail Spanberger nor other elected Democrats distanced themselves from Jones, continuing their support despite his scandal. This underscores that, for some, tribal voting and party loyalty take precedence over principle and morality.
New Jersey Election: GOP Falls Short Again
Democrat Mikie Sherrill trounced Republican candidate Jack Ciattarelli by 13 points, winning 56% of the vote to Ciattarelli’s 43%. Despite recent political headwinds suggesting a potential close race, the margin of victory was wider than expected.
No poll predicted such a decisive win; polling averages pointed to just a 5.2% difference. This was Ciattarelli’s second attempt, following a narrow loss to New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy in 2021 by three points, and likely his last.
As Liberty Nation News’ Senior Political Analyst Tim Donner noted, “He has run an effective campaign in a state that, while heavily blue, has elected GOP governors four times in the last 30 years, with Chris Christie and Christine Todd Whitman each serving two terms.”
New York City Mayoral Race: Record Turnout Amidst Divided Votes
With more than two million votes cast, the New York City mayoral election saw the highest turnout since John Lindsay’s blowout victory in 1969. Democrat Zohran Mamdani won just over 50% of the vote, defeating independent former Governor Andrew Cuomo, who secured 41%, and Republican Curtis Sliwa, who captured 7%.
To put it in perspective, Cuomo’s vote total of over 850,000 would have been enough to win any similar contest since Rudy Giuliani in 1993. This suggests that despite Mamdani’s substantial polling lead, a significant minority of voters were determined to block the socialist candidate from entering Gracie Mansion.
An aggregate of surveys gave Mamdani a 16.2% advantage; however, he was the only major candidate in yesterday’s elections who underperformed relative to polls.
The Trump Narrative
Victory laps abound as the dust settles, with many touting these election results as a damning indictment of Donald Trump. While the outcomes are unfavorable for the former president, they are not surprising.
New Jersey is a solidly blue state that has not voted for a Republican president since George H.W. Bush. Trump lost here in 2024 by almost six points. Virginia mirrors this pattern, with Trump again falling short by roughly six points, and its last GOP presidential choice being Bush the younger. New York City was an almost 70% vote blowout for Vice President Kamala Harris.
Ultimately, Trump remains the party’s figurehead, and the election reflects on his leadership as captain of the ship. Democratic supporters are celebrating not only these wins but also the margins by which their candidates exceeded polling expectations.
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These election results underscore the challenges the Republican Party faces in reliably blue regions and offer early insights into voter sentiment ahead of the 2026 midterms. As the political landscape continues to evolve, the significance of party loyalty and the impact of candidate controversies remain key factors shaping electoral outcomes.
https://www.libertynation.com/election-results-numbers-and-narrative/