The warming of Hunza and the recent glacial lake outburst flood (GLOF) devastation in Ghizer are stark indicators of a shifting climate in Gilgit-Baltistan. In August 2025, floods displaced over 3,000 residents of Talidas village, where three new glacial lakes have formed since the Rawshan GLOF episode—turning many families into climate refugees.

Nestled among towering, ice-capped peaks, the Hunza Valley was once a breathtaking tapestry of pristine snowfields, hardy alpine flora, and crisp cool air. However, this balance has been profoundly disrupted by massive deforestation that transformed the valleys into warmer environments. Widespread deforestation has exposed these once-shimmering icy landscapes to higher temperatures, causing massive melting.

“As a result, solar radiation is now absorbed, raising temperatures at the bottom of the valley,” says Dr. Ghulam Rasool, a former Director General of the Pakistan Meteorological Department and a renowned glaciologist.

Hardy plants once thrived at elevations above 4,000 metres, even in freezing temperatures. Many had needle-like leaves with stomata that remained open in sub-zero conditions. According to Dr. Rasool, between 3,000 and 4,000 metres, broad-leaf trees would survive freezing winters down to -5°C and enjoy summer temperatures as high as 20°C. Below 3,000 metres, fruit-bearing trees such as cherries, plums, and apricots prospered. They withstood 3 to 3.5 months of below-freezing temperatures annually, thriving in warmer conditions for the remainder of the year.

These species thrived until rising global temperatures and widespread deforestation severely undermined the region’s natural resilience. Forests play a vital regulatory role; their dense canopy helps to retain snow and modulate melting rates, stabilising glaciers. As forests diminished, the snowline pushed ever higher into the upper reaches, removing a critical natural buffer and exposing larger areas to rapid erosion and instability.

The deforestation was the first step towards making Hunza an environmental hotspot. Invasive water-consuming trees like poplar and eucalyptus replaced native species, damaging the region’s ecology, says Dr. Rasool. These trees prefer higher and warmer temperatures and have spread across Hunza, contributing to the warming of the once-cooler valleys.

Rising valley temperatures have invited insects that ruin fruit crops, robbing cherries, apricots, and plums of their sweetness and slashing yields. Temperature-sensitive plants, such as olives, have been particularly affected. In Babusar and Shinkiari in neighbouring Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, olive trees once enjoyed luxurious growth, producing high yields of black olives. Locals had even established oil extraction units to process olive oil for cooking and skincare. Today, only some remnants of indigenous olive species continue to bear fruit at higher altitudes. Other varieties have stopped bearing fruit.

Markhors were once abundant in high-elevation grasslands. Now, as valley-bottom temperatures have risen, markhors only descend briefly to drink from rivers before returning to their mountain-peak habitats, explains Dr. Rasool. This shift shows how rising heat is shrinking habitable zones for mountain wildlife.

Loss of snow cover and indigenous vegetation has not only altered temperature regimes but also diminished the region’s ability to support its unique biodiversity and the vibrant natural beauty that once defined Hunza.

According to the Forests, Wildlife and Environment Department, the region once boasted 249,205 hectares of forest cover. However, in recent decades, widespread deforestation and unchecked development have drastically reduced this cover. The result has been serious ecological fallout, including more frequent landslides, flooding, and worsening environmental degradation.

Deforestation, heavy rains, and high temperatures are destabilising glaciers with increasing episodes of glacial lake outburst floods. The 48-year-old mother of three watched helplessly as a biblical deluge roared down the mountains, destroying 80 percent of her village. “The mountains were crying,” she recalls.

The region experienced record-breaking summer temperatures in June and July this year across Gilgit-Baltistan. In Chilas and Bunji, temperatures soared past 47°C, accelerating snow and glacier melt. This was followed by torrential rains—70 percent above the monthly average in July. This combination is a primary driver for GLOFs.

This season saw widespread floods triggered by glacial melt and heavy rains from Ishkoman to Shigar and Babusar Top.

In Hassanabad, Hunza, the situation is more complex. It experienced a surge of Shishper glacier melt in 2018, which resulted in the formation of a glacier-dammed lake by obstructing the water stream originating from Muchuhur glacier in Hassanabad nullah. Four consecutive years of floods from 2019 to 2022 followed due to the formation and bursting of this lake.

However, no flooding occurred in 2023 and 2024 as the glacier surge stopped, and the water channel within Shishper glacier allowed water to flow more calmly. But 2025 triggered havoc for the Hassanabad community as large pieces of the Shishper glacier—almost 2 kilometres long and 80 feet thick—broke off due to calving, partially blocking river flow resulting from increased temperatures. These ice chunks have since fragmented further.

Multiple GLOF events from Shishper glacier caused massive flooding in Hassanabad nullah affecting Dain village, triggered by higher temperatures and extensive rains in the last fortnight of July and the first 15 days of August.

The fourth confirmed glacial lake flooding of this season took place in July in Rawshan village, Ghizer, says Prof. Karamat Ali of the Karakoram International University, Gilgit. This event, stemming from a glacial lake formed in 2022, created another perilous 7-kilometre-long lake by obstructing Ghizer River that displaced 3,000 people from Talidas village. This is the second-largest number of internally displaced persons in the region since the 2010 Attabad disaster, says Prof. Ali.

In Ghizer, Amina Bibi’s life crumbled as a glacial lake outburst flood devastated Talidas village on August 22. The 48-year-old mother of three watched helplessly as a biblical deluge roared down the mountains, destroying 80 percent of the village. “The mountains were crying,” she recalls.

Her family, among 3,000 climate refugees, lost their home, apricot trees, and olive oil stores. “Our hearth, our history—all gone,” Amina says, clutching her late husband’s photo.

According to experts, the discharge from the lake is currently more than the inflow. This is seen as a positive sign; it may drain out on its own if the embankments hold. “The temperatures will fall from September onwards. This will also reduce the inflow to a trickle, easing pressure on the lake,” says Prof. Ali.

With four other glacial lakes in Rawshan posing risk, this underscores the region’s need for vigilance.

The flooding has once again raised questions about reliable early warning systems. Such systems are deployed in the 24 smaller valleys of Gilgit-Baltistan. Prof. Ali says satellite-linked sensors are costly, fragile, and unreliable in large, steep valleys like Ishkoman. Advocating empowering local communities in Gilgit-Baltistan, highlighting their deep knowledge of local terrain and weather, he suggests low-cost, community-operated manual alarm systems—like sirens or bells—to serve as effective early warnings.

Triggered by watchmen upon detecting flood signs, these systems could provide crucial time for evacuation and damage control.

The recent events in Hunza and Ghizer serve as stark warnings of the accelerating climate crisis in Gilgit-Baltistan. Urgent action through reforestation and community-led warning systems is needed to help these valleys regain their resilience and thrive once again.
https://www.thenews.com.pk/tns/detail/1345107-melting-glaciers-displaced-lives