Cryptocurrency analysis firm QCP reports that Bitcoin has been closely tracking overall risk appetite in recent days, stabilizing around $103,000 after a decline during the US trading session. As the partial government shutdown continues in the US, the Senate’s approval of a temporary budget extension until January 30, 2026, has encouraged markets to anticipate a resolution between November 12 and 15.
Weak ADP employment data has reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will adopt a cautious stance. According to QCP, Bitcoin continues to react sensitively to developments in the news cycle. After stabilizing around $103,000 following the US session pullback, BTC is showing renewed resilience, despite the ongoing uncertainty surrounding the government shutdown.
Yesterday’s disappointing ADP employment report revived concerns about a “weakening labor market” ahead of the December 9-10 FOMC meeting. The Senate’s approval of the temporary budget bill provides short-term relief, but the measure must now pass through the House of Representatives and then be signed by the White House. QCP describes this legislative action as a “time-buying” move. Although it may prevent disruptions over the holiday season, it does little to address underlying structural issues.
Markets are expected to remain highly sensitive to any delays or procedural hurdles in the ongoing budget negotiations. According to prediction platform Polymarket, the probability of the shutdown ending between November 12 and 15 has reached 96%.
With official government economic data suspended during the shutdown, private sector indicators have become the main guide for traders and investors. The NFIB Small Business Index recently indicated a modest decline in business sentiment. While companies continue to operate steadily, they report slower sales expectations, pressure on profit margins, and hiring difficulties. This trend supports the recent ADP data and aligns with a “cautious easing” policy from the Federal Reserve.
Once the government reopens and official data is released, accumulated reports are expected to confirm this slowing economic trend. QCP notes that factors such as government shutdowns, tariffs, credit market volatility, and weak economic data could contribute to market volatility throughout the fourth quarter. However, potential Fed rate cuts and strong corporate earnings may support risk appetite and bolster Bitcoin’s performance through the end of the year.
Looking ahead, QCP also maintains a generally positive outlook for 2026, as both monetary and fiscal policies are expected to provide a growth-friendly framework.
*This is not investment advice.*
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/whats-next-for-bitcoin-analysis-firm-assesses-recent-developments/