**Morgan Stanley Warns Bitcoin’s Cycle Is Entering Its Fall Phase, Urges Investors to Secure Profits Soon**
Morgan Stanley has issued a cautionary signal for cryptocurrency investors, indicating that Bitcoin is entering the “fall season” of its four-year cycle. According to Denny Galindo, investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, historical data suggests a pattern of three strong years followed by one year of decline. He stated:
*“We are in the fall season right now. Fall is the time for harvest. So, it’s the time you want to take your gains. But the debate is how long this fall will last and when the next winter will start.”*
Bitcoin’s recent decline below $99,000 on November 5 reflects this sentiment. This drop placed the token under its 365-day moving average, a key level regarded by many as a significant sentiment gauge. CryptoQuant’s head of research, Julio Moreno, described this breach as a strong bearish signal for the market.
### Market Liquidity Weakens as Crypto Inflows Stall
Adding to concerns, Wintermute, a major crypto market-maker, reported that market liquidity drivers have weakened. The firm noted that inflows from stablecoins, exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and digital asset treasuries—the three main components supporting trading activity and price stability—have all plateaued.
Despite this softening liquidity, institutional interest in cryptocurrency continues to grow, albeit gradually. Michael Cyprys, who leads U.S. brokers, asset managers, and exchanges research at Morgan Stanley, observed that institutional investors are increasingly integrating Bitcoin into diversified portfolios.
He highlighted that ETFs have simplified exposure to Bitcoin, especially for investors seeking hedges against inflation and currency debasement. However, Cyprys also pointed out that large institutions tend to move more slowly due to internal risk procedures and long-term investment mandates. Still, regulatory clarity and improved ETF infrastructure are progressively encouraging broader institutional adoption.
### Bitcoin Price Pattern and Short-Term Outlook
On the technical front, analysts see signs of possible stabilization in Bitcoin’s price action. The daily candlestick chart shows Bitcoin trading within a falling wedge pattern after a rejection near the $107,000 level.
Analyst Mister Crypto commented:
*“Bitcoin is trading in this falling wedge. The breakout is so close now.”*
A confirmed daily close above $107,000 could propel Bitcoin’s price toward $124,000, representing a potential 19% increase from current levels.
Private wealth manager Swissblock, in its latest BTC report, indicated that the risk-off signal has shifted back into a low-risk zone. This suggests selling pressure is easing as Bitcoin moves towards recovery. Swissblock added that a move above the $108,500 to $110,000 range would confirm a trend reversal.
At present, Bitcoin trades near $104,817, down 0.27% over the past 24 hours.
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