Cryptocurrency analysis firm QCP Capital has published a comprehensive assessment of the market after Bitcoin fell below the critical $90,000 threshold. The company argued that the primary reason for the decline was rapidly changing macro expectations and continued ETF outflows on the institutional side. Bitcoin experienced increased selling pressure throughout the week, fueled by weakening liquidity. QCP Capital noted that the tightening liquidity magnified price movements and made Bitcoin more sensitive to macroeconomic developments than ever before. According to the analysis, the biggest shock to the markets was the rapid dissipation of interest rate cut expectations, which had been considered a certainty in December. Expectations plummeted from nearly 100% to 50%, putting significant pressure on investment instruments like Bitcoin, which are considered “time-sensitive assets.” QCP noted that stocks are more resilient thanks to strong balance sheets. Record-breaking capital expenditures and strong profits from major AI-focused tech companies, in particular, are supporting stock markets. The release of official data, along with the reopening of the US government, is providing new direction for markets. Labor market data and the Conference Board’s LEI index are being closely watched this week. QCP Capital states that the LEI, which includes updated job posting data, will shed light on the Fed’s policy direction through 2026. FED Chairman Jerome Powell’s words, “A December rate cut is not guaranteed,” have also increased uncertainty. QCP Capital assesses the overall economic outlook as pointing to a late-cycle situation, not a recession. While strong household balance sheets and high corporate investment continue to support the economy, fiscal constraints and labor inequality remain risks. The firm believes this week’s data will determine whether Bitcoin’s current pullback is a temporary reduction in positions or the start of a broader risk-off period. *This is not investment advice.
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