While nonessential employees were furloughed during the recent government shutdown, workers deemed essential—such as air traffic controllers—have continued their jobs. But what does this mean for the millions of Americans who take to the skies every day? To find out, The Conversation U.S. spoke with Laurie A. Garrow, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at the Georgia Institute of Technology.

### What Do We Know About the FAA’s Plans So Far?

The first thing to note is that the situation can change rapidly. However, as of this morning, about 4% of flights are being canceled across 40 “high-volume” airports. This list is publicly available and includes most of the major hubs in the United States such as Atlanta, New York’s airports, Chicago O’Hare, Los Angeles International, and Dallas/Fort Worth.

The plan is to increase cancellations to 10% by November 14 if the shutdown continues that long. The FAA, the U.S. Department of Transportation, and the airlines are working together to decide which flights and routes will be affected. This will undoubtedly be monitored closely in the coming days, with efforts made to minimize disruption for customers.

Currently, cuts are focused on domestic flights only. International flights across the Atlantic, Pacific, and to Latin America are not subject to cuts for now. The 4% cancellations mainly target high-frequency routes to help lessen the overall impact.

For example, American Airlines typically flies nine flights a day from Miami to Orlando but plans to reduce that to eight flights this weekend. Regional flights may also see reductions; a typical route such as Erie, Pennsylvania, to Charlotte might drop from three daily flights to one or two. However, the FAA has made it clear that they will not cut flights to markets entirely, only reduce the number.

### What Will This Mean for Existing Flights?

Passengers can expect more people on the flights that continue to operate. Fortunately, we are currently in the lull before the Thanksgiving travel rush, so there is more slack in the system and extra seats available. If a flight is canceled on a busy route, it should be relatively easy to accommodate passengers on another flight.

Customers are also likely to be advised to arrive at airports earlier than usual. More delays on existing flights are expected because of safety measures.

Air traffic control can only safely manage a certain number of flights at any one time. With fewer controllers available or working reduced hours, the number of airplanes in the sky must be limited. Controllers cannot safely monitor double the usual number of flights.

To manage this, more ground delay programs will be implemented to limit aircraft movements into or out of airports, especially during peak periods. While this causes delays, it is a necessary safety measure.

### What Impact Will This Have on Airlines?

At a 4% cancellation rate, the impact on airlines is expected to be relatively minor. The affected airports are major hubs, and the reduction in flights is balanced across all U.S. carriers.

However, the broader impact may ripple across industries that depend on air transportation. According to the International Air Transport Association, the U.S. air transport sector contributes $3 trillion—about 4.7%—to GDP and supports approximately 7.6 million jobs.

If the shutdown and resulting disruptions continue, especially into the holiday season, the economic impact could be more severe.

### What If the Shutdown Continues Into the Holiday Season?

If flight reductions rise to 10% by the holidays, with added delays, carriers will likely experience significant challenges. The holiday season is a peak travel time, so disruptions during this period will be especially painful for airlines and passengers alike.

### Will This Affect How Americans Choose to Travel?

Air travel is often an emotional choice—used for significant life events like family reunions, holidays, or important business meetings. Difficulty in securing timely flights could influence travel decisions this holiday season.

Robert Isom, CEO of American Airlines, noted on November 7 that the airline is already seeing an impact on bookings, with people postponing or rescheduling trips. For journeys of around 500 to 600 miles, traveling by car is becoming a more attractive option for many.

### Will Passengers Be Compensated for Canceled Flights?

Passenger compensation for delays and cancellations usually depends on whether the issue was within the airline’s control. The U.S. Department of Transportation maintains a dashboard detailing airline policies for mitigating passenger inconvenience in such cases.

However, flight disruptions caused by air traffic control staffing shortages are not considered within the airline’s control. Therefore, compensation policies vary by airline.

As of November 7, many carriers have allowed customers to change flights or request refunds without penalties, even for nonrefundable fares like basic economy. Airlines recognize the importance of maintaining customer loyalty during these disruptions.

Generally, major carriers offer more compensation for delays and cancellations within their control compared to low-cost airlines.

### Is There Any Precedent for This Situation?

There is no exact precedent for a 4% to 10% across-the-board reduction in flights caused by a government shutdown.

However, major disruptions have occurred before, such as after the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks and during the COVID-19 pandemic, when illness among flight attendants and pilots caused cancellations and delays before the holidays.

Historically, consumers have temporarily altered their travel behavior under such circumstances. After 9/11, for example, some travelers shifted to automobile travel for shorter journeys of 500 to 600 miles due to increased airport hassle.

### What Advice Would You Give to Would-Be Flyers Now?

1. **Download Apps:** Get the airport and airline apps for the latest, reliable information.
2. **Book Early:** For major events, consider booking flights a day earlier than usual to provide a buffer in case of delays or cancellations.
3. **Avoid Connections:** The fewer flight legs, the less chance for complications.
4. **Travel Light:** Avoid checking bags if possible to avoid dealing with luggage delays if your flight is canceled.

By taking these precautions, travelers can reduce some of the stress associated with current flight disruptions.

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*Laurie A. Garrow, Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology*
https://www.alternet.org/travel-chaos-trump/