**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**

*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*

A recent report by Crisil Intelligence has highlighted significant risks to India’s economic growth due to the high tariffs imposed by the US on Indian goods. These tariffs are expected to impact both Indian exports and investments adversely. However, the report also notes that domestic consumption is likely to remain a key driver of growth, supported by low inflation and prospective rate cuts.

**GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**

India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of FY25-26, up from 7.4% during the same period last year. Despite this positive momentum, nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% compared to 10.8% in the previous year, according to Crisil Intelligence.

On the inflation front, the report forecasts that the consumer price index (CPI) inflation will ease to 3.5% in the current fiscal year, down from 4.6% last year. This moderation in inflation is expected to provide further support to economic stability.

**Factors Influencing Inflation Control**

Robust agricultural growth is anticipated to keep food inflation under control, although the full impact of recent excess rainfall is yet to be assessed. Additionally, lower crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are expected to help contain non-food inflation. These factors combined are likely to play a crucial role in managing India’s inflation rates over the coming months.

**Policy Outlook: RBI Rate Cut Expected**

On the monetary policy front, Crisil Intelligence predicts that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will implement one more rate cut during this fiscal year, followed by a pause to assess the effects. Between February and June 2025, the RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee had already cut the repo rate by 100 basis points. The central bank is currently awaiting the full transmission of these previous cuts before making further adjustments to interest rates.

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*In summary, while high US tariffs present challenges for India’s growth through their impact on trade and investment, domestic factors such as controlled inflation and accommodative monetary policy are expected to sustain economic momentum in the near term.*
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/us-tariffs-could-impact-india-s-growth-crisil/story

**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**

*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*

A recent report by Crisil Intelligence has highlighted that the high tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods could pose a significant risk to India’s economic growth. The September 2025 report emphasizes that these tariffs are likely to affect both Indian exports and investments negatively.

However, despite these challenges, domestic consumption is expected to remain the key driver of growth, supported by low inflation levels and anticipated rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).

**Economic Indicators: GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**

India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, up from 7.4% in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% compared to 10.8% during the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year, according to Crisil Intelligence.

On the inflation front, the report projects consumer price index (CPI) inflation to ease to 3.5% this fiscal year, down from 4.6% last year.

**Inflation Control: Factors Influencing Rates**

Robust agricultural growth is expected to help keep food inflation under control. However, the full impact of recent excess rainfall on agricultural output remains to be seen. Additionally, declining crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are anticipated to contain non-food inflation, further aiding in the moderation of overall inflation rates in the coming months.

**Policy Outlook: RBI Likely to Implement One More Rate Cut**

On the monetary policy front, Crisil Intelligence forecasts that the RBI will introduce one more rate cut during the current fiscal year, followed by a pause. The central bank’s monetary policy committee had already reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025. The RBI is now expected to await the complete transmission of these cuts before deciding on any further interest rate adjustments.

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*In summary, while high US tariffs present challenges to India’s export and investment sectors, strong domestic consumption, controlled inflation, and accommodative monetary policy are likely to support the country’s economic growth in the near term.*
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/us-tariffs-could-impact-india-s-growth-crisil/story

**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**

*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*

A recent report by Crisil Intelligence highlights that the high tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods could pose a significant risk to India’s economic growth. The September report cautions that these tariffs may adversely affect both Indian exports and investments.

However, the report also offers a positive outlook, noting that domestic consumption is expected to drive growth going forward. This optimism is supported by low inflation levels and anticipated rate cuts.

**Economic Indicators: GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**

India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, rising from 7.4% in the same period last year. Despite this, nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% compared to 10.8% in the previous year for the same quarter, according to Crisil Intelligence.

On the inflation front, the report projects that consumer price index (CPI) inflation will ease to 3.5% in the current fiscal year, down from last year’s 4.6%.

**Inflation Control: Factors Influencing Inflation Rates**

The report emphasizes that robust agricultural growth is expected to help keep food inflation in check, though the full impact of recent excess rainfall is still under evaluation.

Additionally, lower crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are likely to contain non-food inflation. These combined factors will play a crucial role in managing inflation in the coming months.

**Policy Outlook: RBI Likely to Implement One More Rate Cut**

Regarding monetary policy, Crisil Intelligence anticipates that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will implement one more rate cut during the current fiscal year, followed by a pause.

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee had already cut the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025. The central bank is now expected to wait for the full transmission of these past cuts before making any further decisions on interest rates.

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In summary, while high US tariffs present notable challenges to India’s economic growth, strong domestic consumption, controlled inflation, and supportive monetary policy are poised to sustain India’s growth momentum in the near term.
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/us-tariffs-could-impact-india-s-growth-crisil/story