**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**
*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*
A recent report by Crisil Intelligence has highlighted that the high tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods could pose a significant risk to India’s economic growth. The September 2025 report emphasizes that these tariffs are likely to affect both Indian exports and investments negatively.
However, despite these challenges, domestic consumption is expected to remain the key driver of growth, supported by low inflation levels and anticipated rate cuts by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI).
**Economic Indicators: GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**
India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, up from 7.4% in the same quarter last year. Meanwhile, nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% compared to 10.8% during the corresponding period in the previous fiscal year, according to Crisil Intelligence.
On the inflation front, the report projects consumer price index (CPI) inflation to ease to 3.5% this fiscal year, down from 4.6% last year.
**Inflation Control: Factors Influencing Rates**
Robust agricultural growth is expected to help keep food inflation under control. However, the full impact of recent excess rainfall on agricultural output remains to be seen. Additionally, declining crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are anticipated to contain non-food inflation, further aiding in the moderation of overall inflation rates in the coming months.
**Policy Outlook: RBI Likely to Implement One More Rate Cut**
On the monetary policy front, Crisil Intelligence forecasts that the RBI will introduce one more rate cut during the current fiscal year, followed by a pause. The central bank’s monetary policy committee had already reduced the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025. The RBI is now expected to await the complete transmission of these cuts before deciding on any further interest rate adjustments.
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*In summary, while high US tariffs present challenges to India’s export and investment sectors, strong domestic consumption, controlled inflation, and accommodative monetary policy are likely to support the country’s economic growth in the near term.*
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