High US tariffs pose risk to India’s growth: Crisil

**High US Tariffs Pose Risk to India’s Growth: Crisil**

*By Akash Pandey | Sep 27, 2025, 05:01 PM*

A recent report by Crisil Intelligence highlights that the high tariffs imposed by the United States on Indian goods could pose a significant risk to India’s economic growth. The September report cautions that these tariffs may adversely affect both Indian exports and investments.

However, the report also offers a positive outlook, noting that domestic consumption is expected to drive growth going forward. This optimism is supported by low inflation levels and anticipated rate cuts.

**Economic Indicators: GDP Growth and Inflation Projections**

India’s GDP growth reached a five-quarter high of 7.8% in the first quarter of fiscal year 2025-26, rising from 7.4% in the same period last year. Despite this, nominal GDP growth slowed to 8.8% compared to 10.8% in the previous year for the same quarter, according to Crisil Intelligence.

On the inflation front, the report projects that consumer price index (CPI) inflation will ease to 3.5% in the current fiscal year, down from last year’s 4.6%.

**Inflation Control: Factors Influencing Inflation Rates**

The report emphasizes that robust agricultural growth is expected to help keep food inflation in check, though the full impact of recent excess rainfall is still under evaluation.

Additionally, lower crude oil prices and stable global commodity prices are likely to contain non-food inflation. These combined factors will play a crucial role in managing inflation in the coming months.

**Policy Outlook: RBI Likely to Implement One More Rate Cut**

Regarding monetary policy, Crisil Intelligence anticipates that the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) will implement one more rate cut during the current fiscal year, followed by a pause.

The RBI’s Monetary Policy Committee had already cut the repo rate by 100 basis points between February and June 2025. The central bank is now expected to wait for the full transmission of these past cuts before making any further decisions on interest rates.

In summary, while high US tariffs present notable challenges to India’s economic growth, strong domestic consumption, controlled inflation, and supportive monetary policy are poised to sustain India’s growth momentum in the near term.
https://www.newsbytesapp.com/news/business/us-tariffs-could-impact-india-s-growth-crisil/story

Trump announces 100% tariff on pharmaceuticals. Would this hurt India’s drug makers?

**Trump’s Tariff War Continues: 100% Tariffs on Branded Pharmaceuticals Starting October 1**

US President Donald Trump has announced a new wave of tariffs, imposing a 100 percent tariff on imports of branded and patented pharmaceutical drugs effective October 1, next Wednesday. However, there is a caveat: such heavy tariffs will not apply if the drug company establishes manufacturing plants in the United States. This move is part of Trump’s ongoing tariff war and is likely to have significant implications for India, whose pharma sector heavily depends on the US market. Notably, the US is India’s largest drugs market.

### Trump’s Announcement on Pharma and More

On Thursday, September 25, President Trump revealed that brand-name or patented pharmaceutical products will face a 100 percent tariff starting October 1 unless the drug manufacturer is building production facilities in the US. While this move doesn’t come as a total surprise—Trump has been promising to impose tariffs on pharmaceutical imports throughout his term—this is the first time such a significant tariff has been announced on these products.

Trump views tariffs as a way to pressure pharmaceutical companies into ramping up domestic production and strengthening the supply chain for essential medicines. In his announcement on Truth Social, Trump wrote:

*”Starting October 1, 2025, we will be imposing a 100 percent tariff on any branded or patented pharmaceutical product, unless a company is building their pharmaceutical manufacturing plant in America.”*
He added, *”There will, therefore, be no tariff on these pharmaceutical products if construction has started.”*

In addition to pharmaceuticals, Trump also announced new tariffs on other imported goods. These include:

– 50% tariff on kitchen cabinets
– 30% tariff on upholstered furniture
– 25% tariff on heavy trucks

In a separate post, Trump specified that the 25 percent tariff on heavy trucks made outside the US aims to support domestic manufacturers such as Peterbilt, Kenworth, Freightliner, and Mack Trucks. He emphasized that these tariffs serve multiple purposes, primarily for national security.

### Possible Impact on India and Beyond

Following the announcement, Asian stock markets saw a decline, especially in the pharmaceutical sector. According to Reuters, pharmaceutical shares across Asia tumbled:

– Japan’s Topix pharmaceutical index dropped 1%
– Hong Kong’s innovative drug index slid 2.8%
– South Korean firm SK Biopharmaceuticals fell 2.7%
– Australian biotech company CSL was down 1.6% after earlier losses exceeding 3%

In India, there is a cautious mood as the country remains one of the largest suppliers of medicines to the US. India exported pharmaceutical products worth $17.7 billion (Rs 77,231 crore) to the US in 2024. Additionally, exports for the first half of this year reached $3.7 billion (Rs 32,505 crore).

India supplies over 45% of generic drugs and 15% of biosimilar drugs used in the US. Major pharmaceutical companies such as Dr. Reddy’s, Aurobindo Pharma, Zydus Lifesciences, Sun Pharma, and Gland Pharma reportedly generate 30-50% of their total revenues from the American market.

Furthermore, it is reported that Indian drugs saved the US healthcare system $219 billion in 2022 alone, with an estimated $1.3 trillion in savings expected over the next five years due to generics from India.

If a 100% tariff is imposed, it could lead to significant price hikes, inflation, and drug shortages in the US, where four out of every ten prescriptions filled are for these medicines.

However, experts note that Trump’s tariffs target branded and patented drugs only—not generic drugs, which constitute the bulk of India’s pharmaceutical exports. Despite this, uncertainty looms, and pharma executives are closely monitoring the evolving situation.

### Trump’s Ongoing Tariff Blitz

Tariffs on pharmaceuticals, previously opposed by the Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America (PhRMA), represent a continuation of Trump’s wider tariff campaign against America’s trading partners, including India.

The US has already imposed tariffs of varying rates on Indian goods, ranging from 50% tariffs on products like jewelry to garments. Trump firmly believes that tariffs are necessary to compel companies to invest in domestic manufacturing.

He has dismissed concerns that these tariffs will lead to higher costs for consumers and businesses, insisting instead:

*”We’re protecting American jobs, we’re protecting American factories. It’s very simple. If you want to sell here, you build here.”*

Critics, on the other hand, argue that Trump’s tariff strategy exacerbates inflation and creates obstacles for businesses. Despite this opposition, the president and his administration remain steadfast in their approach.

*With inputs from agencies.*
https://www.firstpost.com/explainers/trump-tariff-pharmaceuticals-india-drug-makers-explained-13937033.html

UAE Companies To Pour Investments Into India’s Infrastructure, Data Centres, Banking, Startups & Logistics: Commerce & Industry Minister Goyal

Dubai: UAE companies are exploring multiple sectors in India to boost their investments, Commerce and Industry Minister Piyush Goyal said on Friday. Sectors of interest include infrastructure, data centres, banking, startups, and logistics.

Goyal emphasized that both countries have reset their investment targets and are actively working to accelerate investments across various industries. Collaborations are also being enhanced in areas such as renewable energy, shipbuilding, retail, and pharmaceuticals.

“Infrastructure is one of the major sectors where the UAE sees huge potential. There is considerable interest in the banking sector and startups. Potential investors are keen on the logistics ecosystem and green energy in India,” Goyal told reporters.

The minister was in Dubai to attend the 13th India-UAE High-Level Joint Task Force on Investments. He led a 75-member business delegation during the two-day visit, which concluded on September 19.

Goyal highlighted multiple avenues to increase collaboration between Indian and UAE companies, noting the UAE’s unparalleled strength in investments. “The UAE is also investing deeply in high-tech areas, so we could look at serious collaborations in technology sectors,” he added.

He also noted growing interest from bankers to expand their operations in India. “One banker who met me is very keen to set up a new operation in GIFT City,” Goyal said. He pointed out that while the UAE is already among the top five to six investors in India, there is potential for much larger investment flows, given recent developments.

The UAE recognizes India as a key investment destination. “We expect to see much larger pools of capital coming into India, including both Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and Foreign Institutional Investment (FII),” the minister said.

Regarding Bharat Mart, Goyal mentioned that the UAE has allocated land for the project and construction is expected to begin soon, with completion targeted by 2027. So far, about 9,000 companies have expressed interest in Bharat Mart.

India has received USD 24 billion in FDI from the UAE between April 2000 and June 2025.

*Disclaimer: This story is based on a syndicated feed. Only the headline has been changed.*
https://www.freepressjournal.in/business/uae-companies-to-pour-investments-into-indias-infrastructure-data-centres-banking-startups-logistics-commerce-industry-minister-goyal