Bitcoin is trading near $103,500 after slipping 2% in the last 24 hours. While it remains slightly higher on the week, traders are paying close attention to a key technical level: the 365-day moving average. This line has supported price during past rallies and is now being tested again.
### Testing a Proven Support Level
The 365-day moving average has held up in earlier stages of this market cycle. In several instances, Bitcoin bounced from this level and went on to post significant gains. Notable rebounds from this line included moves of over 190%, 124%, and 65% in previous phases of the current uptrend.
However, in mid-2022, Bitcoin failed to hold this support line. According to Satoshi Stacker, when that break occurred, the price dropped by about 66% before finding a floor. This highlights an important insight: while the 365-day moving average can act as a base during rising trends, a break below it may shift momentum in the opposite direction.
Currently, the price sits just above the average, and a decisive move in either direction could signal the market’s next step.
### Cycle Pattern Points to Ongoing Correction
Charts tracking past Bitcoin cycles reveal a repeated pattern: a multi-year rally followed by a year-long decline. Market data shows that each major cycle topped around 1,064 days after its bottom.
The most recent peak near $126,000 also came 1,064 days after the low in November 2022. Analyst Ali Martinez noted, “If this Bitcoin TC cycle mirrors 2015-2018 or 2018-2022, the top was on Oct 26, and a macro downtrend may have already begun.”
Based on this model, a bottom could form around October 2026, with a target range between $38,000 and $50,000. Past declines of 77% to 84% support this view.
Recent price action and the timing of the high align with patterns seen in prior cycles, strengthening the idea that Bitcoin may be in the early stages of a longer correction.
### Death Cross Signals: Context Over Prediction
In addition, Bitcoin’s short-term and long-term moving averages are close to another Death Cross—a technical signal often viewed as negative. However, during this cycle, Death Crosses have not led to deeper drops. Instead, most were followed by Golden Crosses as the market recovered.
More Crypto Online explained that these signals often arrive after the price move has occurred. “Almost every Death Cross in this cycle was followed by a Golden Cross later,” they said. This suggests that Death Crosses may be more useful for providing context rather than serving as standalone predictions.
### Resistance Holds Price Below Key Levels
Bitcoin experienced a short-lived rally following political developments in the U.S., including a proposed tariff dividend announced by former President Trump. This move drew comparisons to earlier stimulus policies that preceded strong gains in risk assets.
Meanwhile, BTC is struggling to move past resistance between $107,000 and $118,000. As CryptoPotato reported, selling by long-term holders and broader macroeconomic concerns are adding pressure in that zone, capping Bitcoin’s short-term upside.
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As Bitcoin navigates these critical technical and cyclical levels, traders and investors will be watching closely to see if support holds or a deeper correction unfolds.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/is-this-the-start-of-bitcoins-next-major-correction/