The Bengals are preparing to face a much different Patriots team than the one they played in Week 1 of last season. The Patriots were able to come away with the victory in Jerod Mayo’s first game as head coach, but they only managed to win three more games all season. The Patriots now are 9-2, riding an eight-game winning streak and are tied with the best record in the AFC as they get set to take on the 3-7 Bengals. The Bengals are just three years removed from a conference championship loss, and it’s been just four years since their last Super Bowl appearance. It’s amazing how quickly things can flip in the NFL. One thing is for certain: The Patriots are in much, much better shape this year with Mike Vrabel as their head coach, Josh McDaniels as the offensive coordinator and Drake Maye, not Jacoby Brissett, starting at quarterback. Here’s what we’re watching on Sunday at 1 p. m. in Cincinnati: • The Bengals reportedly will not activate quarterback Joe Burrow from injured reserve in time for Sunday’s game, despite his return to full participation in practice earlier this week. That means Joe Flacco will continue to start. It’s debatable how comfortable Burrow would have looked in a rusty return to the field coming off of a turf toe injury, but this is still a win for the Patriots. Burrow, at this best, is one of the top quarterbacks in the NFL. Flacco has been solid since joining the Bengals, but he’s got a 1-4 record with Cincinnati, and he’s 2-7 on the season, including his time with the Browns. • The Patriots don’t need to worry about Ja’Marr Chase this week, since he made the inadvisable decision to spit at Steelers defensive back Jalen Ramsey last week and got himself suspended. But they will still need to cover Bengals wide receiver Tee Higgins, a popular target for the Patriots in free agency until he was franchised and went on to sign a contract extension with the Bengals. On third down and critical situations, expect Patriots cornerback Christian Gonzalez to shadow Higgins, who’s the Bengals’ No. 2 receiver but is as talented and high-powered as a No. 1. Higgins has 35 catches for 544 yards with seven touchdowns this season. The Bengals’ other wide receivers are Andrei Iosivas and Mitchell Tinsley. • Running back Chase Brown’s numbers don’t jump off the page, but the Bengals rank fourth in rushing DVOA, second in EPA/rush and eighth in rushing success rate. Their offensive line is just 21st in ESPN’s run block success rate, and Brown ranks 25th in rush yards over expected, so there’s something funky going on there. The Patriots’ run defense has been tremendous this season, but they did appear to miss Milton Williams after he left last week’s win over the Jets. Expect his snaps to be split between Khyiris Tonga and Cory Durden. Rookies Joshua Farmer and Eric Gregory also could take on bigger roles. • Williams is the Patriots’ best or second-best defender, with Gonzalez being his biggest competition. The Patriots do have nice depth at defensive tackle behind starter Christian Barmore, however. Tonga and Durden are having career years, and Farmer and Gregory have had solid moments. • The Bengals’ pass-block win rate ranks just 29th this season, per ESPN, and they’re 23rd in PFF’s pass-blocking efficiency. The Patriots’ pass rush has been inconsistent this season, and losing Williams for the next four games will hurt. On the edge, K’Lavon Chaisson is also having a career year with 6. 5 sacks through 10 games. Fellow starting outside linebacker Harold Landry III has slowed in recent weeks. Could the Patriots give rookies Elijah Ponder and Bradyn Swinson more opportunities? Ponder, an undrafted free agent, has sacks in two straight games. Swinson, a fifth-round pick, was signed off of the practice squad and could be set to make his NFL debut against the Bengals. • The Patriots’ offense should be back at full strength this week with wide receiver Kayshon Boutte (hamstring) and running back Rhamondre Stevenson (toe) back. Boutte, one of the league’s best deep threats, has missed the last two games. Stevenson has been out for three games. The Patriots weathered the storm without those two, but facing the league’s worst defense, per DVOA, it could be a highly productive day for the offense. • Boutte will likely take his reps back from rookie Kyle Williams, who caught a 72-yard touchdown against the Buccaneers but was otherwise ineffective in Boutte’s place. Maye and Boutte had forged an impressive downfield connection through the first half of the season. • Rookie TreVeyon Henderson took on a much larger role in Stevenson’s absence. Prior to Stevenson’s injury, Henderson was largely a change-of-pace back. Henderson had a 147-yard, two-touchdown performance in Week 10 and scored three touchdowns in Week 11. He’s not built for an every-down role, but his effectiveness and big-play ability should cut into Stevenson’s playing time. Without any inside information, it wouldn’t be surprising to see them split snaps. • Two key Bengals defenders, defensive end Trey Hendrickson and cornerback Cam Taylor-Britt, are also out. Without Hendrickson rushing from the right side, rookie left tackle Will Campbell shouldn’t have an overly difficult matchup this week. Maye has been sacked a lot this season, but he reiterated this week that most of those were his fault. The Patriots’ offensive line has been much, much better this year. • This should be a blowout. Game prediction: Patriots win 38-13 against an undermanned Bengals team.
https://www.bostonherald.com/2025/11/22/10-things-were-watching-in-patriots-week-12-matchup-with-bengals/