Gold (XAU/USD) remains under some selling pressure for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday and drifts back closer to a one-and-a-half-week low, around the $4,000 neighborhood, touched the previous day. Traders have been scaling back their bets for another interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) in December, which, in turn, is seen as a key factor undermining the non-yielding yellow metal. The US Dollar (USD), however, struggles to attract any follow-through buying amid concerns about the weakening economic momentum on the back of the longest-ever US government shutdown. This, along with the prevalent risk-off environment, could offer some support to the safe-haven commodity and help limit further losses. Traders might also opt to wait for more cues about the Fed’s rate-cut path before positioning for the next leg of a directional move for the Gold price. Hence, the market focus will remain glued to the release of FOMC meeting Minutes, due on Wednesday, and the delayed US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report for October on Thursday. Moreover, speeches from influential FOMC members will play a key role in driving the Greenback and providing some meaningful impetus to the XAU/USD pair. In the meantime, a convincing break and acceptance below the $4,000 psychological mark will be seen as a key trigger for bearish traders. This, in turn, will set the stage for an extension of a nearly one-week-old downtrend from the vicinity of mid-$4,200s. Daily Digest Market Movers: Gold continues to be pressured by less dovish Fed expectations The longest-ever US government shutdown led to an absence of official economic data and dampened expectations for another interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in December. Moreover, several Fed officials recently signaled caution on further policy easing. Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson said on Monday that upside risks to inflation have declined somewhat and the current policy rate is somewhat restrictive. Jefferson, however, added that the central bank needs to proceed slowly as monetary policy approaches the neutral rate. According to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool, the probability for a 25 basis-point Fed rate cut in December has now fallen below 50%. This, in turn, has been a key factor that continues to drive flows away from the non-yielding Gold for the fourth consecutive day on Tuesday. Meanwhile, investors remain worried about the impact of the prolonged US government closure on the economy, which fails to assist the US Dollar in building on the previous day’s gains. This might hold back the XAU/USD bears from placing aggressive bets and help limit losses. The reopening of the US government shifts the market focus back to the release of delayed economic data, including the key Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report on Thursday. Apart from this, the FOMC Minutes could offer cues about the rate-cut path and influence the commodity. Russia’s Defence Ministry said that its forces have occupied strongholds in Orestopol in the Dnipropetrovsk region. Moreover, a Russian attack forced a Romanian border village to evacuate. This keeps geopolitical risks in play and could support the safe-haven precious metal. Gold could accelerate the fall below $4,000 psychological mark amid a negative technical setup The XAU/USD pair recently failed to move back above the 200-hour Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The subsequent fall favors bearish traders and suggests that the path of least resistance for the Gold price is to the downside. Some follow-through selling below the $4,000 mark will reaffirm the negative bias and make the commodity vulnerable to accelerate the fall towards the $3,931 intermediate support en route to the $3,900 mark and late October swing low, around the $3,886 region. On the flip side, any meaningful recovery attempt might now confront an immediate strong barrier near the $4,053-4, 055 region. However, a sustained strength beyond could trigger a short-covering rally and lift the Gold price back to the 200-hour EMA, currently pegged just below the $4,100 round figure. Some follow-through buying will suggest that the recent slide witnessed over the past week or so, from the vicinity of mid-$4,200s, has run its course and pave the way for additional gains.
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