Crypto Twitter is filled with claims that “everyone is buying Bitcoin,” from Michael Saylor and BlackRock to entire countries and even banks. Yet despite these accumulation narratives, Bitcoin’s price has slipped sharply, breaking below key levels as ETF flows turned negative.
This contradiction between bullish headlines and falling prices emphasizes a crucial point: in markets driven by liquidity and marginal flow, who’s actually buying, and when, matters far more than who says they are.
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### Bitcoin Price Breaks Key Levels Amid Negative ETF Flows
Bitcoin fell through $106,400 as spot ETF flows turned negative over four consecutive sessions. The shift came as BlackRock’s IBIT logged redemptions totaling $714.8 million over the last four days, removing a significant source of daily demand right as a widely watched cycle pivot gave way.
According to Farside Investors, the outflows of $88.1 million, $290.9 million, $149.3 million, and $186.5 million coincided with this breakdown. These redemptions forced selling by authorized participants who redeemed shares for underlying Bitcoin and offloaded them into the market, flipping the net flow.
When creations slow and redemptions rise across the U.S. spot ETF complex, the daily bid that helped absorb volatility turns into a source of supply.
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### Fund Flows and Market Impact
Mid-October saw stretches of net outflows across digital asset funds as Bitcoin struggled to stay above $106,400. While there were brief inflow days late in the month, the recent trend has tilted back into the red—a pattern aligning with IBIT’s data.
The mechanical impact matters because ETF flow translates into spot buys or sells. The timing overlaps with a break of a key level many traders use to distinguish a late-cycle pullback from a trend resumption.
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### Derivatives and Macro Factors Add Pressure
Derivatives added further pressure on Bitcoin’s price. The CME three-month futures premium cooled to roughly 4-5% annualized over the back half of the year, curbing carry-trade incentives that typically pull institutional basis demand into rallies.
Simultaneously, funding on perpetual swaps softened or turned negative at points, accelerating down moves when longs de-risk and liquidations cluster.
In this climate, slow, scheduled spot accumulation by corporates or sovereign entities does not offset forced liquidations on leverage or redemptions on regulated products that directly translate to spot selling.
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### Macroeconomic Headwinds
Macro factors have not eased the path. The U.S. Dollar Index rebounded toward the 98-100 range in November after a weak first half, while the U.S. 10-year yield remains near 4.1%, keeping real rates restrictive.
A firmer dollar and tight real yields tend to compress global liquidity and weigh on long-duration risk assets. Bitcoin continues to respond to these impulses at tactical horizons. When flows are roughly flat, the dollar often determines whether a bounce holds or fades.
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### Supply Overhang and Miner Selling
Supply narratives also persist. The Mt. Gox rehabilitation timeline was extended to October 31, 2026, following partial distributions earlier this year, maintaining a recurring overhang even if actual sales are staggered. Periodic trustee updates and wallet movements repeatedly tighten risk tolerance on rebounds.
Miners remain another pressure valve. Post-halving economics have left hashprice near cycle lows relative to the spring spike, creating ongoing incentives for treasury monetization on stress days. This can compound selling pressure, especially when funding softens procyclically.
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### Cycle Context: The Bull-Bear Pivot Lost
Cycle framing helps tie these pieces together. Recently, $126,000 was called the cycle high and $106,400 the bull-bear pivot. The price just lost that pivot as ETF bids turned into net selling, while basis stayed subdued and funding cooled.
Interestingly, common on-chain and cycle monitors—such as the 2-Year MA Multiplier, Pi Cycle Top, and RHODL—have failed to reach euphoria this cycle, even near the highs. Metrics are already slipping toward distribution and mean reversion as flow support fades.
This could mean the bull run will be extended this cycle or represent diminishing returns compared to prior transitions. These tools are not standalone timing devices. However, when they align with daily flow inflection and macro stiffness, traders tend to withdraw liquidity, amplifying the impact of incremental sells.
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### Why Is the Price Falling If Big Players Are Buying?
Why is the price falling if BlackRock, corporates, or countries are buying? The flow math provides a direct answer.
– Nation-state purchases are episodic and small compared to daily turnover.
– Corporate treasuries operate on idiosyncratic schedules.
– Banks often facilitate client activity rather than deploying balance sheet risk daily.
None of these actors offset a week where issuers that normally create shares instead redeemed, funding drifted toward or below zero, and the dollar firmed. In this mix, the marginal seller rules the tape.
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### What’s Next for Bitcoin’s Near-Term Path?
The near-term path depends on whether spot creations reappear and the basis expands.
– **Continued net outflow days** from the largest U.S. spot ETFs, especially IBIT and FBTC, combined with CME basis near or below 5% annualized and flat to negative funding, would keep the market in a distribution phase. Under this setup, failing to reclaim $106,400 leaves $100,000 as a battleground and opens mid to high $90,000s on further red sessions, particularly if macro conditions stay tight.
– A **more neutral outcome** with oscillating smaller flows, basis stabilizing in the 5-7% zone, and a range-bound dollar around 97-100 suggests digestion between $100,000 and $106,000 while liquidity rebuilds.
– The **upside case** requires a return of multi-day net creations in the $300 to $800 million range across the complex, pushing basis above 8-10% annualized, and a softer dollar. This scenario could trigger a retest of $110,000 to $115,000 and reopen debate around the cycle top if flows persist.
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### How to Tell If the Bitcoin Bull Run Is Still Going
Monitoring several indicators helps gauge the health of the current bull run:
– **ETF Flows (Farside data):** Sustained multi-day creations from major issuers like BlackRock’s IBIT or Fidelity’s FBTC signal renewed demand. Continued redemptions or flat prints confirm the bid turned into supply.
– **Fund Flows (CoinShares report):** Broad inflows across digital asset funds, especially led by Bitcoin, indicate institutional rotation back into risk. Persistent outflows or concentration in defensive altcoins point to capital retreat.
– **Leverage Conditions (CME basis and funding):** A rising basis (above ~7-8% annualized) and positive, stable funding suggest appetite for directional risk, typical in bull phases. Flat or negative setups imply deleveraging and distribution.
– **Macro Liquidity (DXY and 10-year yield):** A weaker dollar (DXY below 97) and easing yields open liquidity channels that historically underpin bullish momentum. Strength in either metric tightens liquidity, pressuring crypto beta.
– **Mining Supply Pressure (Hashprice trends):** Rising hashprice and stable or falling miner selling hint that the market is comfortably absorbing new supply, a bullish signal. Collapsing hashprice or spikes in miner transfers to exchanges often mark stress within uptrends.
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### Recent Spot-ETF Flows Summary (BlackRock’s IBIT)
| Date | Net Flow (USD millions) |
|———|————————-|
| Oct 29 | -88.1 |
| Oct 30 | -290.9 |
| Oct 31 | -149.3 |
| Nov 03 | -186.5 |
| **Total** | **-714.8** |
The last four trading days flipped the spot-ETF bid into a sustained net seller, exactly as Bitcoin lost its pivot. With CME basis subdued and funding soft, the marginal price was driven by de-risking rather than dip-buying. A firmer USD and sticky real yields rounded out a flow-led break—not a referendum on long-term adoption.
Until daily creations return and $106,400 is reclaimed, this remains a distribution and digest phase within the broader cycle.
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### Looking Ahead: The Cycle Pattern and Long-Term Outlook
Unless the historic Bitcoin cycle pattern has been disrupted by corporate treasuries and ETF flows, Father Time has already spoken. If Bitcoin were to reach a new all-time high by the end of this year or in 2026, it would mark the latest cycle high ever recorded.
For now, staying focused on daily issuer-level flows, derivatives positioning, and macroeconomic factors remains critical for understanding Bitcoin’s trajectory.
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*Stay tuned for updates as market dynamics evolve.*
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/5-clear-signals-that-will-prove-if-the-bitcoin-bull-run-is-still-alive/