You go to war with the army you have, not the one you want. The same principle applies to elections: you vote according to existing laws, not the laws you wish existed.
With good reason and principle, Republicans generally remain skeptical of a long, drawn-out voting period—often described as “Election Month”—and the risks of ballot custody issues that can arise during mail-in voting. However, Virginia, with its Democrat-led Legislature and a tendency to vote left, presents a different dynamic. Meanwhile, Republicans are beginning to take note and adjust their strategies.
As October drew to a close, early voting in Virginia in some areas continued to favor Republican-leaning districts, a trend that was also observed through late September. Earlier this year, data from the Virginia primary elections showed higher turnout in Democrat-led areas. Yet, in the current general election, early voting in most state House districts leans toward Republicans. This trend bodes well for conservative candidates facing the typical challenges of Virginia’s off-year elections.
That said, estimates of the partisanship of early voters from The Virginia Public Access Project reveal a more nuanced picture. While likely GOP voters lead in early in-person ballots, likely Democrat voters hold a larger lead in mail-in ballots. Overall, most early ballots so far are from likely Democrat voters.
Virginia votes for governor, lieutenant governor, and attorney general in the year following a presidential election. Historically, the party opposite the president’s party often wins the Virginia Executive Mansion in Richmond.
“Republican identifiers are likely becoming more comfortable with voting in advance than they were previously, a trend we’ve seen in other states as well,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, in an interview with The Daily Signal.
“Republicans have become more open to voting early, particularly early in-person. The best voting method for Republicans is likely Election Day itself, although the gap between early in-person and Election Day voting was smaller in 2024 than it was in 2021,” Kondik added.
Early voter turnout in Virginia this year is significantly higher than four years ago. As of October 30—five days before Election Day—early balloting is up nearly 25% compared to the same time last year and has already exceeded the total number of ballots cast in the 2021 Virginia gubernatorial election.
Data from the Virginia Department of Elections shows that among the top 20 state House districts for ballots cast, 12 are in GOP-led areas, six are Democrat-leaning or strongholds, and two are toss-up, competitive districts. Conversely, among the bottom 20 districts for early voting turnout so far, 14 are Democrat-leaning or Democrat strongholds, while only six are Republican-leaning or strongholds.
While this measure is not perfect, it offers some indication of voter fervor and intensity across the state.
Kondik also shared district-by-district vote totals for Virginia’s 11 federal congressional districts in 2024, sourced from The Downballot, a left-leaning election site.
“As you can see, the district that produced the most presidential votes was VA-01, which is a GOP-leaning but competitive district,” Kondik noted. “The second-highest was VA-05, the third-most Republican district in the state. The one that produced the least votes was VA-03, one of the bluest districts.”
Comparing the 2024 early voting results with turnout so far in 2025, the five congressional districts currently held by Republicans each have more early votes cast this year than their comprehensive total in 2021. Only one of the six Democrat-held districts—Congressional District 11—shows this trend.
Even though the RealClearPolitics aggregate of polls currently favors Democrat Abigail Spanberger over Republican Winsome Earle-Sears by 8.9 points in the Virginia governor’s race, the contest remains largely within the margin of error.
No matter who wins on Election Day, the continued strong turnout by conservative voters in early elections will be crucial in determining whether liberty thrives or faces setbacks in our beautiful commonwealth.
*Carrie Sheffield*, a Virginia voter, is the author of *Motorhome Prophecies: A Journey of Healing and Forgiveness* and the program manager of Healthy Faith.
*The Daily Signal* publishes a variety of perspectives. Nothing written here should be construed as representing the views of the publication.
https://www.dailysignal.com/2025/11/03/finally-defeating-self-sabotage-virginia-republicans-embrace-early-voting/
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