The conventional wisdom among most election analysts is that the 2025 Virginia gubernatorial contest between Republican Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger will be won by the latter. This consensus is primarily based on a series of polls that purport to show her ahead by very comfortable margins.

All such surveys, however, necessarily incorporate certain assumptions about the makeup of the electorate and turnout. If those assumptions are inaccurate, pollsters can end up wiping a lot of egg yolk off their faces.

In the Old Dominion, 45 days of early voting has produced a record-breaking turnout—except in localities where most of the electorate consists of Black voters. This suggests that the pollsters need to keep clean towels on hand.

According to the Virginia Public Access Project, the big problem for the “good guys” is the unemployed apparatchiks in the northern part of the Commonwealth. They are not happy, and they will vote for Abigail Spanberger. Moreover, the early vote numbers suggest that many already have done so. There is also the so-called fifth column that we still call “educators.”

In the end, though, Virginia has given us a 45-day preview of the election, and the voters Spanberger desperately needs just aren’t buying it. Good.

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https://spectator.org/virginia-wild-card-turnout-among-black-voters/