The housing market’s fall surprise: Buyers are back, and Zillow says the momentum isn’t over yet

New listings climbed 3% year over year in September, reversing the 3% decline seen a month earlier. On a monthly basis, listings dipped 2%, but this still outperformed the historical average of a 9% drop heading into the fall season.

Total inventory slipped just 1% from August to September but remains 14% higher than levels from the same time last year. This shift highlights a changing balance of power in the housing market.

Currently, 15 of the nation’s 50 largest metropolitan areas are classified as buyer’s markets, up significantly from just six last year. Zillow’s heat index identifies the top buyer-friendly metros as:

– Miami, Florida
– New Orleans, Louisiana
– Austin, Texas
– Jacksonville, Florida
– Indianapolis, Indiana

In contrast, seller-leaning markets continue to be hot due to limited housing supply and restrictive land-use laws. Zillow’s top seller-friendly markets include:

– Buffalo, New York
– Hartford, Connecticut
– San Jose, California
– San Francisco, California
– New York, New York

Recent nationwide data from Freddie Mac reinforces Zillow’s message of market resilience. The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has dropped to about 6.19%, its lowest level projected for 2025. Meanwhile, existing-home sales rose to a seven-month high in September as affordability began to improve.

Although 15% of pending sales were canceled amid buyer hesitation, Redfin’s data shows that sellers are adjusting their expectations by making price cuts and accepting slower deals.

Together, these trends suggest the housing market is thawing rather than overheating. Zillow’s economists expect this “unseasonably active” fall to continue through the holiday season, fueled by easing borrowing costs and pent-up demand.

For buyers who have been waiting for an opportunity, this may be the first real opening in nearly three years.

*For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.*
https://fortune.com/2025/10/26/housing-market-fall-surprise-buyers-back-zillow-predicts-momentum/