Polymarket data indicates that wagers against Trump taking action would have yielded returns comparable to the S&P 500. In contrast, gambling on the likelihood that he would actually follow through proved to be a losing proposition.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/features/2025-10-20/polymarket-bets-on-trump-inaction-pay-off
Will Trump Do It? It Pays to Bet ‘No’
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