The gaming PC ecosystem is poised to benefit significantly from the forced transition to Windows 11, according to a report released Friday by analyst firm Jon Peddie Research (JPR). The firm forecasts a 35 percent increase in hardware sales during 2025 alone. However, despite this optimistic outlook, there are challenges ahead: millions of gamers are expected to leave PC gaming entirely over the next five years.
JPR, which has tracked the PC graphics market for decades, predicts that the global market for PC-based gaming hardware—including desktops, notebooks, DIY components, peripherals, and accessories—will grow 35 percent in 2025, reaching $44.5 billion.
The firm notes that actual consumer spending could be even higher. “JPR applies a purchase motivation model to the PC gaming hardware market, which calculates financial market magnitude based on customers’ intent to play video games with the hardware,” the company stated. “As a result, JPR’s data is conservative in relation to total PC hardware expenditure.”
JPR’s report comes just a day after market researcher Canalys predicted a 3.9 percent dip in U.S. consumer PC sales in 2025, falling to 25.284 million units before rebounding by 5.4 percent in 2026 to 26.651 million units. Rival firm IDC forecast flat U.S. PC sales for the second quarter, though it projects a 6.5 percent increase in the worldwide PC market.
The U.S. PC market has seen fluctuations influenced by tariffs, which have both boosted and lowered sales as they have come and gone. Still, retail PC sales in August showed a 0.6 percent increase—outperforming expectations.
Corie Barry, CEO of Best Buy, told Yahoo Finance that shoppers are increasingly value-conscious. “We see almost everyone looking for value now,” Barry said. “We actually are seeing a consumer… bifurcated a bit, [that’s] still willing to spend if they really feel like it’s a great value.”
### The Impact of Windows 11 Forced Upgrade
JPR’s outlook considers PC sales as well as DIY components and accessories, all influenced by the Windows 10-to-Windows 11 transition—a shift that extends beyond simple financial considerations.
“Never before in the history of the Microsoft Windows operating system has there been a forced hardware migration requirement,” said Ted Pollak, JPR’s senior analyst of game tech. “And this cannot be solved by swapping out a graphics card. It requires a CPU upgrade for over 100 million gamers, which, in turn, requires a motherboard upgrade and most likely RAM as well.”
Pollak noted that most PC gamers are opting for new prebuilt systems to meet Windows 11 requirements. However, those who prefer to build their own PCs are prepared for the transition, too.
“The DIY gamers are also prepared for this transition, and many have been building new computers alongside their existing Windows 10 PCs, instead of trying to Frankenstein their current systems,” Pollak explained. “This allows them to continue using their PC until their Windows 11 builds are complete.”
### Challenges Ahead for Entry-Level PC Gaming
Despite the optimistic growth forecast, JPR’s long-term outlook reveals some concerns. The company, which has monitored PC graphics for over 30 years, recently reported that Intel’s share in PC graphics had fallen to nearly zero.
Jon Peddie, president of JPR, warned of a “significant decrease in entry-level PC gaming” over the next five years, projecting a 13 percent drop in entry-level gamers.
“Included in this drop are over 10 million people leaving the PC platform entirely,” Peddie said. “Consoles, handhelds, and mobile devices all offer compelling value for the budget-limited gamer. However, a few million entry-level defectors are not actually leaving the PC platform but are migrating to the more expensive hardware tiers of midrange and high-end PC hardware.”
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The transition to Windows 11 presents both opportunities and challenges for the gaming PC market. While hardware sales are expected to surge, shifts within the gaming community may reshape the landscape in the years ahead.
https://www.pcworld.com/article/2915173/firm-predicts-wildly-optimistic-view-of-2025-pc-gaming-then-an-exodus.html
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