Here’s Alabama’s path to an SEC Championship Game appearance

The Iron Bowl will all but determine Alabama’s postseason fate. That’s the case for the College Football Playoff and now, somewhat officially, the SEC Championship Game. With the results of SEC games Saturday, Alabama appears set to lock up a spot in the conference title game so long as it beats Auburn next weekend. In the scenario where Texas A&M beats Texas and grabs the top spot, the second spot is essentially left up to Alabama, Ole Miss and Georgia. The result in the Egg Bowl doesn’t matter, though, for the Crimson Tide. If Ole Miss wins, Alabama will still have the advantage over the Rebels and Georgia based on the tiebreaker of conference opponent win percentage. But if Ole Miss loses to Mississippi State, Alabama would still get the second spot because Ole Miss would have two conference losses, knocking it out of conference title contention. As a result, the second spot would come down to Alabama and Georgia, and the Crimson Tide has the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Bulldogs; Alabama beat Georgia in September. Using this helpful unofficial tiebreaker calculator, there doesn’t appear to be another game result that can change Alabama having the advantage over Ole Miss and Georgia in conference opponent win percentage. Vanderbilt defeating Kentucky 45-17 was the biggest result Saturday in helping ensure that. In the scenario Texas beats Texas A&M next week, Alabama would still get one of the two spots in the SEC Championship Game. In that scenario, where Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia and Ole Miss are all 7-1 in conference play, it would come down to conference opponent win percentage. Georgia would have the edge over the other three teams and get the first spot. Alabama would get the second spot, having a better conference opponent win percentage than Ole Miss and Texas A&M. So, Alabama is all but headed to Atlanta, so long as it beats Auburn first. Easy enough, right?.
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