**Has Bitcoin Entered a Bear Market?**
The question on every investor’s mind is: has Bitcoin entered a bear market? The answer is not conclusive—at least, not yet. There is still another week for Bitcoin (BTC) to respond following the recent formation of a death cross.
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**Signs of Recovery to Watch**
One of the key signals that could indicate a recovery would be Bitcoin moving beyond the $110,000 mark, corresponding with the 50-day moving average (50DMA), within November. Such a move would draw parallels to Bitcoin’s price action seen back in April.
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**Repeating Patterns: March vs. Today**
Bitcoin’s price movements in recent weeks bear striking similarities to those observed earlier this year in March. On both occasions, Bitcoin broke down beneath a 3-month range formation that followed new all-time highs. This pattern has caught the attention of market analysts.
In a recent post on X, analyst EndGame Macro shared insights suggesting Bitcoin is likely to find support and bounce back in early 2026, based on detailed financial analysis. However, it comes with a cautionary note—the bounce is unlikely to mark the start of the next major rally like the one seen in April and May.
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**Why Caution is Warranted for 2026**
Several factors contribute to the expectation of a potential slump in Q2 2026. The analyst highlighted the drying up of liquidity during tax season and the U.S. Treasury’s plan to build up the Treasury General Account (TGA), which tightens liquidity conditions. These elements could reduce risk appetite considerably, resulting in Bitcoin struggling and possibly sinking further into a bear market.
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**What Lies Ahead?**
The critical question remains: will Bitcoin repeat the March-April 2025 scenario, where a rally led to new all-time highs? Or will we experience a brief bounce in Q1 2026 that misleads investors into a false sense of security before the price dips deeper?
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**Analyzing the Macro Environment**
Understanding the broader economic indicators is essential for making sense of the situation and for Bitcoin bulls to strategize accordingly.
One such indicator is the U.S. Dollar Index (DXY), which measures the value of the U.S. dollar against a basket of six foreign currencies. A rising DXY trend signals dollar strength, often leading to weaker Bitcoin performance due to reduced risk appetite. Conversely, a falling DXY indicates a weakening dollar, generally associated with stronger Bitcoin performance and a more risk-on sentiment.
Since 2021, when the Bitcoin bear market began, the DXY had been on a strong uptrend. Currently, the DXY is maintaining a bearish structure—a positive sign for Bitcoin. However, this could change.
Interestingly, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in December has dropped sharply from 88% a month ago to 44% now. This uncertainty around rate cuts could halt the current DXY downtrend, which would be unfavorable for Bitcoin bulls.
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**Investor Sentiment and Market Flows**
Further reflecting the prevailing market mood, exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have experienced significant outflows since the market crash on October 10th. This trend highlights weak investor sentiment and underscores the strength of bearish market forces, although it does not guarantee sustained losses.
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**The Significance of the Death Cross**
Benjamin Cowen, CEO and founder of Into The Cryptoverse, pointed out the formation of a Bitcoin death cross in a recent post on X. Historically, death crosses have marked market bottoms. However, if Bitcoin fails to respond bullishly within a week by challenging the 50DMA at $110,000, the death cross could instead signal a “macro lower high.”
Such a lack of a positive response would suggest that Bitcoin may attempt another rally towards the $110,000 region but only to form a macro lower high—a bounce that is part of a larger downtrend. This outlook aligns with the expectations for Q2 2026 discussed earlier.
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**Conclusion**
While Bitcoin has yet to definitively enter a bear market, key indicators point to cautious optimism mixed with underlying bearish risks. Investors and bulls should watch the $110,000 level closely and remain vigilant about macroeconomic factors driving market sentiment. The coming weeks will be crucial in determining the direction of Bitcoin’s next major move.
https://bitcoinethereumnews.com/bitcoin/analysts-warning-bitcoins-early-2026-rebound-could-precede-a-major-crash/
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