The Bihar assembly elections have been announced, and now all eyes are glued to the final result on November 14, when votes will be counted. The Bihar election is important for various reasons, not least because the credibility of the Election Commission (EC) is at stake. Regardless of the outcome, a serious debate is expected after the results are declared, questioning whether votes were polled and counted fairly, or if the result was manipulated to suit the interests of a particular party.
### The Crucial Role of the Election Commission
The role of the Election Commission has rarely been discussed as much as it is now, since the days when T.N. Seshan was the Chief Election Commissioner. Seshan is credited with transforming the EC into a powerful institution that refused to toe the government line. He gave the EC ferocious teeth to challenge big political parties, powerful prime ministers, and chief ministers, cleansing the electoral system during a time when elections often meant violence and destruction at polling booths.
Before the Bihar elections were announced, the Special Summary Revision (SSR) of the voters’ list had become a hot topic. The Opposition alleged that the entire exercise was designed to help the ruling NDA by deleting and adding names on the voters’ list to ensure a BJP/JDU victory. The SSR was challenged in the Supreme Court, which ordered the EC to announce reasons for the deletion of each of the 6.5 million names removed from the draft list.
The EC remained adamant about not using Aadhaar cards for voter verification but relented only after a stern Supreme Court order. Meanwhile, claims surfaced that foreigners’ names were included to favor the Opposition, yet, as of now, no evidence or arrests have confirmed these allegations. This turned out to be a hoax, further proving that the BJP’s purported use of Bangladeshi and Rohingya names was a tactic to polarize the elections.
### Upholding Election Integrity
In this election, the EC must prove that elections in India cannot be manipulated. Elections should not only be conducted fairly but must also be **seen** to be done fairly. Hence, more than the political parties, it is up to the EC to demonstrate impartiality and ensure its conduct is above suspicion. The SSR exercise was not intended to favor any party but to ensure a clean and accurate voters’ list.
This election is also very important for Prime Minister Narendra Modi and the BJP, as the Rahul Gandhi-led Opposition has accused them of manipulating the election through the EC. The BJP must prove that these accusations are baseless and that they win the election purely by voters’ choice. Even if the BJP loses, it should not be seen as an impediment to free and fair elections, thereby putting an end to the “vote chori” (vote theft) debate in future elections.
### Rahul Gandhi’s Rising Opposition Leadership
Rahul Gandhi has emerged as a formidable leader of the opposition since the 2024 parliamentary elections. He is shaping the political agenda, compelling the BJP to respond to campaigns like Save Constitution, the demand for a caste census, and now the Vote Chori allegations. Rahul is increasingly viewed as a serious challenger to Prime Minister Modi. According to the C-Voter survey, he is closing the popularity gap vis-à-vis Modi for the prime minister’s post.
However, since becoming the top leader of Congress, Rahul has lost more elections than he has won. He needs to prove that he can win elections too, and that the Congress’s improved seat tally in 2024 was no fluke. His Voter Adhikar Yatra has been a huge success, attracting massive crowds and energizing Congress cadres at the grassroots. Yet, whether this momentum will translate into votes remains to be seen.
### Tejashwi Yadav: The Mahagathbandhan’s Hope
Tejashwi Yadav narrowly missed victory in the 2020 Assembly elections. Despite being a greenhorn then, he courageously made unemployment the central theme of that election, forcing Modi and Nitish Kumar to work hard to retain power. Since then, Tejashwi has matured as a leader and is now the sole leader of the Mahagathbandhan alliance. Most surveys place him ahead of Nitish Kumar as the first choice for Chief Minister.
But can he actually win? This remains the million-dollar question.
### Nitish Kumar’s Final Battle
Twenty years is a long time in politics, and anti-incumbency has surely mounted against Nitish Kumar. He is trying to neutralize public anger by distributing money directly to women’s bank accounts—a strategy that worked in Madhya Pradesh, Haryana, and Maharashtra. Will this formula work again in Bihar?
This is likely Nitish’s last election. He appears frailer and seems to have lost some control over the administration due to his failing health. Speculations abound that he is only a front, with others running the government and the JDU. However, Nitish should not be underestimated. A maverick in Indian politics, he has survived and remained Chief Minister for two decades. Even now, he has the capacity to surprise his rivals and pull off extraordinary political maneuvers.
### Bihar at a Crossroad
Bihar has a rich history as the land of great empires but remains the poorest state in India today, with the lowest per capita income. Nearly 34% of households earn less than Rs 6,000 per month, and over 95% of the population does not own a vehicle.
Bihar desperately needs new thinking and fresh ideas to break free from the cycle of backwardness and poverty. Can this election demonstrate that Bihar votes on real issues rather than caste? Only time will tell.
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*The writer is Co-Founder of SatyaHindi.com and author of* Hindu Rashtra. *He tweets at* [@ashutosh83B](https://twitter.com/ashutosh83B).
https://www.freepressjournal.in/analysis/bihar-assembly-elections-2025-might-prove-to-be-a-litmus-test-for-many
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