OPEC might increase oil production a bit this November

**OPEC May Slightly Boost Oil Production This November**

*By Dwaipayan Roy | October 5, 2025, 6:41 PM*

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) is reportedly close to finalizing a minor increase in oil production for November. According to delegates from key member countries, the group is likely to approve an output boost of approximately 137,000 barrels per day (bpd), maintaining the same increment as this month.

### Efforts to Regain Market Share

This decision comes as part of OPEC’s broader strategy to reclaim its share in the global oil markets. The group is gradually reintroducing halted production, adding back around 1.65 million bpd to the market after a larger tranche was recently restored. Despite this, oil prices have been hovering near a four-month low, underscoring the delicate balance OPEC and its allies must manage amid an oversupplied market.

### Market Overview: Prices and Supply Dynamics

Oil prices remain subdued as fresh supply enters a market still absorbing previous increases. There has been a noticeable build-up of unsold Middle Eastern cargoes, and futures market trends indicate near-term weakness ahead.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has issued warnings about a looming record surplus, projecting that inventories will swell rapidly during the current quarter. These developments are driven by slowing global oil demand and expanding supply, particularly from producers in the Americas, with the IEA forecasting a historic surplus by 2026.

### Diverging Strategies within OPEC

Within OPEC, differing views are emerging regarding the pace and scale of production increases. The co-leaders, Saudi Arabia and Russia, have expressed contrasting perspectives.

Saudi Arabia, which has been most affected by previous production cuts now being reversed, is advocating for a more aggressive output increase to regain lost market share. Russia and other members, meanwhile, appear cautious about ramping up production too quickly, reflecting strategic differences within the group.

### Constraints on Spare Capacity

The recent series of production hikes has also spotlighted the limits of spare capacity within the OPEC alliance. Since May, eight key members have restored only about 60% of a planned 2.2 million bpd supply tranche.

This shortfall partly results from some countries offsetting prior periods of overproduction. More importantly, it suggests that certain members may already be operating near full capacity, limiting how much additional supply OPEC can effectively bring to the market in the near term.

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OPEC’s upcoming decision on November’s production levels will be closely watched by market participants as the group navigates a complex landscape shaped by supply constraints, internal strategic differences, and evolving global demand dynamics.
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